“Are you two really the best we have?”
This question was asked by an audience member during the recent TV debate between Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. And it captures the national mood well as Britain heads to a general election on July 4, 2024.
Labour has been consistently 20 points ahead in the polls since late 2022 and is expected to win with a comfortable majority. But there are views across the country that a Labour victory would be more about ousting the Conservatives who have been in power for 14 years than positively supporting an opposition party that has failed to generate “huge enthusiasm” among voters.
“There was a buzz in the air about Tony Blair's election in 1997,” says News Decoder correspondent Harvey Morris, who was Reuters' parliamentary correspondent during the Thatcher era. “An unpopular Conservative government had been ousted and the economy wasn't so bad. It was a pretty good time to be around. We haven't had that this time.”
Indeed, this election is taking place during one of the darkest economic periods in recent British history. Over the past decade and a half, we have seen the worst income growth for a generation. House prices are now higher relative to incomes than at any time in the past 148 years. The negative economic consequences of Brexit are becoming increasingly clear.
After nine years of austerity, the coronavirus pandemic and the global energy crisis have left 7.2 million households food insecure. The number of people waiting for treatment at the National Health Insurance Corporation has reached a near-record 7.57 million.
Difficult times for young people
The generation that is hit the hardest is the younger generation.
“There is a cost of living crisis, a rent crisis, a housing crisis, an energy crisis, a welfare crisis. There are so many crises,” said Cecilia Jastrzemka, the chair of the UK’s Youth Europe movement. “I know so many young people who are incredibly qualified but who are sending out five applications a day and reaching out to all their contacts and still not getting an interview.”
However frustrated they may be, the ballot box is not where Britain’s youngest voters are seeking change. Britain has the lowest youth turnout in general elections of any OECD country. Only 47% of 18-24 year olds voted in the 2019 general election, the lowest since the late 1990s.
Compare this to the 66% of people in the same age group who voted in the Dutch general election in 2017, or the 68% who voted in the German federal election the same year.
There is no evidence that voter turnout will improve in 2024, and there are signs that it could get worse. Ahead of this election, registration among those under 25 was half the number recorded before the 2019 election. One poll suggests voter turnout across all age groups could hit an all-time low.
“The real challenge is significant,” said Markus Wagner, a professor of electoral behavior at the University of Vienna. “Young people move more frequently, they may be registered where they live, and they may often be abroad. They are less settled, so they may feel less attached to the places they are in and less involved.”
Young people feel alienated and left out.
The unusual decision to hold the election in July, when universities are out of session, as well as the recent introduction of mandatory voter ID, could create additional travel difficulties for some young voters.
But the number of people who face real hardship is likely to be far smaller than the number who simply will not vote.
“A lot of young people feel really alienated and disenfranchised,” Jastrzembska said. “There are a few who are not registered. There is an overwhelming feeling that the political parties do not represent their interests, that politics is dominated by old white men, and that their priorities do not align with the aspirations or needs of young people.”
Wagner agrees. “Young voters tend to be ignored by the parties,” he said. “The parties know that young voters are less likely to vote, and that they are far more likely to be pensioners than under-25s. So the focus is on that. The parties also have a hard time finding ways to tailor their message to young people and make it appealing and interesting. They would rather put their energy elsewhere.”
Meanwhile, the far-right Reform UK party has tried to win over young people, but unlike its counterparts elsewhere in Europe, it has failed to make significant progress.
Morris points to historical reasons. “The whole idea of the far right was not as popular as it is on the continent,” he said. “Young people see their contemporaries who are drawn to the far right as being a bit weird and out of touch with it.”