The rich oil states of the Persian Gulf have big plans for the future. It hopes to attract more and more tourists and investors, host large-scale sporting events, build new cities and diversify its economy away from oil.
But they face an looming threat that they cannot easily escape with money. It's the extreme, sometimes deadly heat that sweeps through their country every summer. These threats are expected to become more severe in the coming decades due to climate change.
Heatwaves increase energy demand, wear out infrastructure, put workers at risk, and make even simple outdoor activities unpleasant and potentially dangerous—all of which will impose a significant long-term tax on the Gulf states’ vast ambitions, experts say.
“We keep thinking that we want to go bigger and bigger, but we don’t think about the impact of climate change in the future,” said Aisha Al-Sarich, an Oman researcher at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore. “If we continue to expand, that means we need more energy, more water, more electricity, especially for cooling. But there are limits, and we're seeing those limits today.”
The threat of extreme heat became clear this week when Saudi Arabia announced that more than 1,300 people had died on the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. These include at least 11 Americans. Saudi officials said most of those who died had traveled without permission to use heat protection equipment and were vulnerable to temperatures that sometimes exceeded 120 degrees.
Their deaths have raised questions about how Saudi Arabia is managing the event that draws more than 1.8 million Muslims to the holy city of Mecca.
Kingdoms and other countries across the Gulf are pouring huge amounts of their oil wealth into efforts to boost their economies and climb the list of popular global destinations.
Saudi Arabia is building a luxury resort on its Red Sea coast and a futuristic city known as Neom in the northwestern desert. Qatar hosted the men's soccer World Cup last year and has also hosted other international sporting events and trade shows. The United Arab Emirates hosted a glittering World Expo and its business-friendly policies have helped make it a playground for the ultra-rich.
However, these countries face serious environmental problems.
We’ve all had incredibly hot summers for a long time, but scientists say climate change is already making seasons longer and hotter. This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Some forecasts warn that we could see weeks of heat waves with temperatures reaching up to 132 degrees later this century. Temperatures that high could be life-threatening to humans.
Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, are among the most water-scarce countries in the world, with available water barely keeping up with demand. This requires importing water or removing salt from seawater, a costly and energy-intensive process.
Many Gulf states have announced major environmental plans to reduce carbon emissions, green their cities and develop climate-friendly technologies. They have also invested heavily in efforts to mitigate the risks of extreme heat, often taking measures that other Middle Eastern countries struggling with heat, such as Egypt, Yemen and Iraq, cannot afford.
But money alone isn't always enough.
This month, parts of Kuwait, a major oil exporter, experienced sudden power outages. Temperatures soared to 125 degrees in some areas, causing traffic lights to go out and people to become trapped in elevators.
Authorities have blamed rising energy demand for overwhelming power plants. To reduce the load, the government implemented power cuts during the hottest part of the day, forcing people to find alternative spaces with air conditioning.
Summer heat greatly limits life in Kuwait, altering the times people work and sleep, forcing those who can afford it to live in air-conditioned environments.
Fatima Al Saraf, a family doctor in Kuwait City, said she used to run long distances in the winter, but in the summer she had to use an indoor treadmill or go to the mall to increase her daily steps.
“I don’t go out at all,” said Dr. Al Saraf, 27.
She is afraid of the future.
“Kuwait is expected to become uninhabitable, especially if temperatures continue to rise in the summer months,” she said. “These changes will certainly affect future generations.”
Other countries seem to be managing the heat better, but they too still face challenges.
Qatar has used its wealth as one of the world's leading exporters of liquefied natural gas to keep outdoor spaces cool even during the hottest hours of the day. The stadium, built for the 2023 World Cup, was equipped with outdoor air conditioning for year-round use. An urban park in the capital Doha boasts an air-conditioned running track, and an outdoor cooling system was recently unveiled at a popular outdoor market.
“There is a cooling ecosystem,” said Nishad Shafi, a non-resident fellow in Qatar at the Middle East Institute. “Everything needs to be cooled. More cooling parks, more cooling gardens, more cooling shopping areas, more cooling souks are popping up every day.”
However, these technologies are expensive, especially when deployed over large areas.
“You can't cool everything in one country,” Mr Shafi said.
Additionally, the protections these technologies offer are routinely denied to the most vulnerable people, including the millions of migrant workers in the Gulf doing everything from construction work to gardening. Many people have no choice but to work outside, and studies have shown that working in extreme heat can increase accidents and cause damage to the body.
To protect outdoor workers, Qatar and other Gulf countries have banned most outdoor work during the hottest part of the summer. This year, Kuwait extended those protections to motorcycle delivery drivers who stayed hot on the asphalt while wearing helmets.
But nighttime temperatures are also stifling, and as countries continue to heat up, governments may need to extend curfews or take additional measures.
“These countries are moving fast, but the temperature is changing faster than they are,” Shafi said.
Rising temperatures could derail Saudi Arabia’s dramatic development plans. Will tourists flock to new luxury resorts when it’s too hot to comfortably swim in the Red Sea? Will enough people want to move to the capital, Riyadh, to double its population, when daytime temperatures often exceed 100 degrees year-round?
And as the kingdom warms, keeping Hajj safe will become more difficult.
Pilgrimages and related rituals involve spending a lot of time outside and walking long distances. Because the timing of the summer solstice is based on the lunar calendar, it moves gradually backwards throughout the year and cannot be rescheduled.
The Saudi government has invested billions of dollars to protect pilgrims, providing them with elaborate awnings, fog fans and air-conditioned shelters to help them escape the heat.
But scientists warn that temperatures could rise even higher as the summer pilgrimage season approaches in the mid-2040s. One recent study warned that future pilgrims could be exposed to heat levels exceeding “extreme risk thresholds” unless they take “aggressive acclimatization measures.”
Tariq Al-Olaimy, managing director of 3BL Associates, a Bahrain-based sustainable development consultancy, said he thought this year's pilgrim deaths were a “wake-up call” because they showed both the success of heat protection and the risks for those without it.
“The lesson of Hajj is that if this is not a priority for the entire population, there will be devastating consequences,” he said. “But the lesson is that we cannot thrive and survive without proper and sufficient heat management.”
Yasmina Almullah Contributing reporting from Kuwait City, Kuwait.