Domestic U.S. business travel volume is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels through 2026, while overall business travel spending, both domestic and international, will not recover before 2028, according to forecasts released and prepared Wednesday by the U.S. Travel Association. This is not expected to happen. Tourism economics.
US Travel expects business travel volume and respective spending to continue to increase each year through 2027, the final year of the forecast, but at a decreasing rate each year. Global business travel spending is expected to reach $265.5 billion in 2024, nearly 87% of 2019 levels. It is expected to reach $282.7 billion in 2027, 92.4% of pre-pandemic levels.
U.S. travel forecasts are less optimistic than those released by the Global Business Travel Association in August 2023. GBTA estimates that global business travel spending will exceed 2019 levels by approximately 6% by the end of 2024.
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US Travel expects a slowdown in economic growth that will “impede the recovery in domestic business travel.” Domestic business travel volume in 2024 is expected to be $442 million, about 95% of 2019 levels, up from 89% in 2023, according to U.S. Travel. A 99% recovery rate is expected to be possible in 2025, and is expected to reach $473.7 million in 2026, about 2.1% above pre-pandemic levels.
Domestic business travel spending is expected to reach $236.8 billion in 2024, nearly 89% of 2019 levels. By 2027, this figure is expected to reach $252.8 billion, or 93.8% of pre-pandemic spending.
U.S. international business travel spending is also not expected to fully recover during the forecast period. US Travel projects that U.S. overseas spending will reach $28.7 billion in 2024, about 78.8% of 2019 levels. By 2027, this spending is expected to reach $29.8 billion, still lagging the recovery at about 82% of pre-pandemic levels.
The report comes about a week after U.S. Travel released findings that found the U.S. ranked 17th out of the top 18 travel markets in terms of global competitiveness.