Donald Trump has long loathed Barack Obama and has tried to appear opposite to the former president in every way. But in taking control of the Republican National Committee, he risks repeating one of Obama's biggest political mistakes.
Last night, Trump's handpicked RNC leadership took charge and carried out the purge. A new regime led by a new chairman, Michael Whatley; Vice Chair Lara Trump; And Chief of Staff Chris LaCivita laid off about 60 employees (about a quarter of the staff) as part of a “rationalization.” The “bloodbath” includes members of the communications, data and political departments. insiders said Politico They expect existing contracts with suppliers to become invalid.
When the new leaders were announced last month, I implied that the Republican Party would cease to function as a political party and become just another subsidiary of the Trump Corporation. But you can look at this from another perspective. For years, the RNC has struggled. The Republican Party might have lost the 2016 presidential election if not for the emergence of Trump, who shook up the party's long-standing platform and forged new coalitions that no other candidate has recently won among voters. But since then, Republicans have continued to lag even as Trump has increased voter turnout. The Republican Party suffered a major blow in the 2018 midterm elections, lost the 2020 presidential election, and fell short of expectations in 2022. The by-election was the Democratic Party’s playground. The RNC enters the 2024 election with one-third of the Democratic National Committee's reserves.
From this perspective, it's time for Trump to take charge and clean up the deadwood. Allies like Reps. Charlie Kirk and Marjorie Taylor Greene were pleased with the overhaul. While it is unusual for Trump to appoint his daughter-in-law and a top campaign aide, candidates typically take charge of campaign organizations ahead of presidential elections, which is better to align their goals.
In fact, Trump can't really distance himself from his recent mismanagement. The ousted Speaker, Ronna McDaniel, was Trump's pick in 2017, and his main complaint about her is that she is not sufficiently compliant with her regulations. If Trump wants more of the same, that's bad news for the party. Trump's critics within the Republican Party are also concerned that he intends to use party funds to fund his personal defense and incur significant legal costs. Last week, the committee outright rejected a proposal from existing lawmakers to prevent this.
But let’s look at the best-case scenario for Republicans. In the past, the RNC seemed professional compared to the chaotic and amateurish Trump campaigns of 2016 and 2020. (There's a reason Trump appointed RNC Chairman Reince Priebus as his first White House chief of staff, even though Priebus represented Trump. (Hated.) But the Trump campaign this year seemed organized and disciplined; LaCivita is said to be a big part of that: National committees tend to be bloated and outdated, and a more focused and efficient operation could solve the Republican Party's problems.
The problem is that Trump conflates his success with the Republican Party's success. But some of the things that are good for Trump are not good for the Republican Party in the long run. Here Obama offers a word of warning.
When he won the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008, Obama was a rebel. The DNC has long been dominated by allies of Hillary Clinton, whom he defeated in the primary. He wasn't steeped in the old ways of doing things. Obama viewed the Democratic Party as essentially a national organization aimed at supporting his political goals and re-election. After his election as president, he moved the main functions of the DNC to Chicago, his hometown and political base, despite protests from party insiders who feared that down-ballot efforts would be overshadowed by Obama's re-election campaign. He also created a group called Organizing for America outside the DNC to support his political movement.
The result was a severely weakened DNC. The national focus has led to the neglect of other elections. After the death of Senator Ted Kennedy, the Democratic Party lost the 2010 Massachusetts special election. Some Democrats blamed this failure on the National Party. The losses delayed passage of the Affordable Care Act and forced congressional Democrats to tone it down to get it through.
The Bay State special was a pioneer. As Matt Yglesias calculated in 2017, during the Obama era, Democrats lost 11 Senate seats, 62 House seats, and 12 governorships. The damage was especially severe at the state level. Democrats lost nearly 1,000 seats in the state legislature, their worst loss since Herbert Hoover toppled the Republicans. Republicans took control of 29 individual chambers and won 10 new states, giving them control of both the legislature and the governor's mansion. All of this happened at the same time that Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections (and again in 2020).
Democrats, including Obama, have suffered for their mistakes. As the Obamacare experience shows, losing an election makes it harder to advance a policy agenda. Losing control of the Senate makes it difficult to confirm judges, especially in important places like the Supreme Court. Just ask Judge Merrick Garland. And it's difficult to implement policies when governors and state legislatures oppose them.
Excessive focus on the presidential primary is also a risk of Trump taking over the RNC. He and his associates have announced that, like Obama, they view party committees primarily as tools for presidential elections. “Our mission is simple: maximize the resources of the Republican Party to get President Trump elected,” Lasivita said. new york times last month. Mirroring Obama's move to Chicago, the RNC is reportedly already moving most of its operations to Palm Beach, Florida, near Trump's Mar-a-Lago headquarters. This all makes sense. Trump is a narcissist who cannot and will not separate his own interests from those of his party or the country.
Reducing the RNC's national presence could weaken the party at lower levels. Some political parties are already a mess. The chairman of the Florida Republican Party was recently ousted amid a sex scandal. The chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, an ardent Trump supporter, was also fired after a tumultuous time, and the state party was reportedly bankrupt. The Arizona Republican Party also suffered discord after recently losing its chairman. But more MAGA is unlikely to be the solution to these problems, as infighting and obsession with Trump's election boycott have been at the center of several explosions. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, currently the most effective branch of the Republican machine, has succeeded in creating some insulation from Trump and allowing it to select a strong candidate. In 2020, most Republican congressional candidates outperformed Trump.
And even if Trump's RNC theory comes true in 2024, what happens next? Trump won't always be president or candidate. At some point, Republicans will have to elect a new leader, and they will be reduced to nothing more than a shell of a party committee, which may become part of Trump's personal campaign machine. Rebuilding from there is a difficult and long road. Just ask the Democratic Party.