The think tank says Sunak's per-pupil funding 'protection' will actually be effective at a 6% reduction and will lead to job losses and school closures.
The think tank says Sunak's per-pupil funding 'protection' will actually be effective at a 6% reduction and will lead to job losses and school closures.
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The Conservatives' promise to substantially protect per-pupil funding could lead to the biggest cuts to school budgets in 50 years, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned.
A pledge to “actually protect real school spending per pupil” during the next Parliament is one of several new commitments included in Rishi Sunak’s manifesto published today.
But in a stark assessment, the IfS said this actually amounted to a £3.5 billion cut, equivalent to 6% of overall school budgets. This is because the number of students is expected to decrease by 400,000 by 2028.
IfS researcher Luke Sibieta said: “Cuts to whole school budgets of this magnitude have not been made since the mid-1970s, and if they were to happen they would almost certainly require staffing reductions and potentially school closures.” .
Taking the minimum steps implied by the promise “means that spending per pupil in 2029 will be at the same real level as in 2010. There has been no increase in school resources per pupil in nearly two decades.”
IfS also warned that cutting total spending would be “difficult from a practical perspective”.
Larger increases in per-pupil funding are not ruled out.
Politicians of all parties are facing calls to maintain current school funding cash levels. As student numbers decline, per-pupil funding can be increased in cash terms rather than reflecting inflation.
The Conservatives may also decide to raise per-pupil funding if they win the election, as they are solely focused on protecting the election.
The party also failed to include the £3.5 billion savings in its cost documents. We approached the person concerned for clarification.
At an ASCL conference earlier this year, former general secretary Geoff Barton said political parties should use their headroom to increase per-pupil funding and funding for disadvantaged children.
He accepted the fact that “money was tight.”
“But there is something politicians on all sides can and should promise during the next parliamentary process. This is affordable and will make a big difference.
“Population estimates show that the number of students in England’s schools is expected to fall by half a million over the next five years. This will result in huge savings of billions of pounds.
“There is therefore a golden opportunity to put education on a more sustainable footing, rather than plowing this money back into the Treasury.”