The Legislature's first firing vote comes Friday morning, and it probably won't be a cliff.
The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee will likely give Gov. Brad Little everything he wants. It will provide $70.8 million in grants to help high school graduates continue their education. JFAC members have already drafted a motion to fully fund the launch.
“We’ve already done the work on this,” said Sen. Dave Lent, R-Idaho Falls, chairman of the Senate Education Committee and a JFAC member.
That's the first step. Easy steps. It's hard to handicap what happens there. The next phase will test the untested budget-making process and the political will of the most powerful people on Capitol Hill. A year after the launch proposal survived a series of razor-thin votes in Congress, the second year is also sketchy.
Friday's JFAC vote feels like a done deal. Fifteen of JFAC's 20 members supported at least one of the two policymaking bills last session. So Lent, a loyal supporter of Launch, has good reason to be optimistic.
Even Speaker of the House Mike Moyle knows what's coming. Moyle, an R-Star, has garnered more than a few votes during his 26 years in the Statehouse and fully expects the launch budget to come out at JFAC on Friday.
But Moyle is no detached observer. He is Launch's most high-profile opponent at the Statehouse. He represents conservatives in Congress who believe Launch could be a huge giveaway, handing out grants of $8,000 at a time. And he is uniquely positioned to bring his skills to bear in the launch debate.
Here's why: The new budget process, which Moyle fully supports, would give the Legislature a clear vote to pass or reject subsequent spending bills. And that includes release bills.
Since the program was not included in the $5.1 billion “maintenance” budget bill that JFAC scrapped in January, the launch funds must remain on their own. Never mind that Launch is not technically a startup. In September 2022, Congress established a funding source for Launch, investing $80 million annually to fund high-demand jobs. After the Legislature created Launch in 2023, the state's workforce development board rushed to launch the program. As of February 1, an astonishing 13,037 high school students have applied for launch money.
Funding the second year of launch arguably has the feel of program maintenance, but that is not how Congress defines maintenance. This process will give Launch critics another Launch vote.
Unless Moyle acts as one house. He has the authority to forward all bills to the House Ways and Means Committee, the speaker's personal graveyard. And he doesn't rule it out.
“If they think I won’t do it, I will,” Moyle told Idaho Education News on Thursday. “does not matter. “I don’t like that program.”
For Moyle, the sideboard is important. He's hearing some ideas that could make Launch more palatable, such as reining in the largely unelected Workforce Development Board that would have the power to decide which in-demand career pursuits qualify for Launch grants.
What isn't yet clear (and may not be clear until voting begins) is what Launch skeptics will do with a program they never liked in the first place. Are you trying to completely dismantle the program, or are you trying to fix it instead?
Rep. Wendy Horman, House co-chair of JFAC, believes the time has come and gone to end the Launch program. She likens Launch to Medicaid expansion. This is a program she opposed, but has now fully approved. Likewise, she said the council has made a policy decision for a launch in 2023.
“This is the law and I feel an obligation to support its commitments,” said Horman, R-Idaho Falls, who sponsored the second of two launch policy bills last year.
Senator Lori Den Hartog, an opponent of Launch, would like to see several changes to Launch. She's not a fan of the Workforce Development Council's list of in-demand occupations. Call it a “stupid” menu that doesn’t direct high school graduates to career technical courses or community college programs that provide valuable career skills. But no matter what changes happen, she plans to vote against them. “I told the governor’s office, ‘You’re going to bleed all over me again this year,’” said Den Hartog, R-Meridian.
House Education Committee Chairwoman Julie Yamamoto maintains steadfast support for the launch and said the flood of applicants only highlights the need. She is not averse to modifying the program after her first year. “At this point, we haven’t even given it a chance to have wings,” said Yamamoto, R-Caldwell.
The 13,000 applicants, all high school students who may or may not be of voting age, will make it difficult for lawmakers to kill Launch outright. If the Legislature does not fund the launch this year, the grant money will run out just in time for lawmakers to run for re-election in the May primary and November election. Breaking financial promises is not a good way to win over voters.
Few people have pointed that out. Last week, he told reporters at the State Council that lawmakers opposed the launch despite the risk. And as the Workforce Development Board deals with an unexpected surge of well over 7,000 to 9,000 applicants, the Legislature also counts traffic by legislative district.
In Moyle's District 10, 547 high school students had applied as of Feb. 1, ranking third among the state's 35 legislative districts.
If Moyle is under pressure from graduating seniors and parents in the suburbs, he won't sit still. “The pressure is to make sure we get it right.”
Congress plans to begin production on Launch 2.0 on Friday morning. But this debate is only just beginning.
Kevin Richert writes weekly analysis of education policy and education politics. Look for his story every Thursday.