JayJudging by recent headlines, young men and women are more politically divided than ever. “A new global gender gap is emerging.” Financial Times Data journalist John Burn-Murdoch wrote in a widely cited January article: Burn-Murdoch's analysis includes several striking graphs that show that a huge ideological rift appears to have developed between young men and young women over the past decade. Of course, the impact not only on politics, but also on relationships between men and women, and even on the future of the species, was astonishing. all new york times According to the episode's title, an opinion podcast convened to discuss “gender divide and the 'looming apocalypse of the developed world.'” washington post “If attitudes do not change, political dating disagreements will threaten marriage,” the editorial board warned.
But as soon as the theory gained traction, it came under scrutiny. “For every survey question that lets you find a unique gender gap among the youngest age groups, you can find many other questions that don’t find that gap,” said John Sides, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University. “Where we started this whole conversation was, this big thing is happening. It's happening all over the world. And then you just pick a few minutes and it becomes a really complex story.” Skeptics point out that, at least in the United States, claims of a new gender gap depend on selective interpretation of inconclusive evidence. Although several studies show a separation between young men and women, at least many studies suggest that the gender gap is stable. And at the ballot box, there is little evidence of growing divisions. That said, Gen Z's war of the sexes is probably not apocalyptic. It may not exist at all.
teathe gender gap It has been a fixture of American politics since at least the 1980 presidential election, when, according to exit polls (women left, men right), Ronald Reagan won 55% of male voters but only 47 women.
Some evidence suggests the gap has widened recently. Gallup data shows that in 2023, women ages 18 to 29 will be 15 percentage points more likely than men in the same age group to consider themselves liberal, compared to 7 points a decade ago. Young men's ideologies have remained more stable, but some surveys have shown a shift to the right, especially among white young men. For example, 33% of white males ages 18 to 24 identified as Republican in 2016, compared to 41% in 2023, according to the Harvard Youth Poll. According to Tom, this trend is also starting to show up in new voter registration data. Bonier is a Democratic political strategist. “Trust me. As a partisan Democrat, I hope that's not true. But it seems to be true,” he said. “We're still arguing in general about whether that's going to happen, which to me is stupid. The conversation didn't move on. why.”
Why? Several factors to consider are presented. One is the gender polarization caused by social media. (Think of the misogynistic “manosphere” influencers and women who say “all men are trash.”) Another, as always, is Donald Trump. John Della Volpe, chair of the Harvard Youth Poll, said women in their 20s seemed repulsed by Trump's rise in 2016. They were much more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. And then there is the #MeToo movement, which emerged in 2017 shortly after President Trump took office. Danielle Cox, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a free-market conservative think tank, argues that this has continued to shape the political consciousness of young women. A 2022 poll found that nearly three-quarters of women under 30 said they supported #MeToo. This is the highest figure among all age groups. Supreme Court's decision to dismiss Roe vs. Wade It seems that this has also become a turning point. A survey conducted by AEI found that 61% of young women said abortion was an “important” concern ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. “Young women increasingly believe that what happens to all women in America affects their lives and experiences,” Cox said. “That really stood out later on. roe “It turned over.” Gen Z women are more likely than Gen X or Baby Boomer women. less Millennial women are more likely than women to say they have been discriminated against because of their gender at some point in their lives.
Not so fast, the young people say. Generation Z men also They are more likely than older generations to say they have been discriminated against based on their gender. “There’s this weird ping-pong going on between Gen Z men and women about who’s really struggling and who’s the real victim,” said Richard Reeves, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Reeves, who founded the American Institute for Boys and Men, argues that while men still dominate the highest echelons of American society, social conditions at the bottom are worse than ever. They are much less likely than women to go to college or find a good job, and they are also much more likely to go to prison or die. These young people feel that mainstream institutions and the Democratic Party have failed to solve their problems. Reeves is correct. And in the wake of #MeToo, some people seem to believe society has turned its back on men. Survey data shows that Gen Z men are much less likely to identify as feminists than Millennial men and about the same as middle-aged men. “I’m really concerned that we’re trending in politics towards women’s parties and men’s parties,” Reeves said.
rainBut if you are a young man And women were indeed politically divided. You can expect to see evidence on Election Day. And this is where cracks begin to appear in the theory. About 68% of men ages 18 to 29 voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, compared with about 70% of women in that age group, according to the Cooperative Election Study, a national survey conducted by YouGov. It turns out that it is. (In 2016, when Trump's personal behavior toward women was particularly notable, the gap grew larger to nearly 7 points.) Catalist, a progressive company that models election outcomes based on voter record data, found that: . In recent elections, the gender gap was roughly the same across all age groups. In the 2022 midterms, the youngest voters will be least There was a gender gap and overwhelming support for Democrats.
Many opinion polls showing the widening gender gap ask questions such as: ideology. However, research shows that many people are not clear about what the labels mean. Gallup, whose data partly inspired the gender gap craze, found that only about half of Democrats identify as liberals. Ten percent described themselves as conservative, while the rest said their views were moderate. Among self-proclaimed Republicans, ideological lines are only slightly less mixed. “Everything here depends on the characteristic or question we are trying to measure,” Sides said. “If you ask people whether they are a liberal or a feminist, you can find out whether they believe those labels describe them. But you didn’t ask how they define that label.” People may hate this term. many However, they still support abortion access and high government spending. In fact, 2020 polling data from Nationscape, which assesses people's positions on personal issues, shows that young men and women are no more divided than older generations. For example, across all age groups, women are more likely than men to favor banning assault rifles and providing universal health care.
Or maybe the unique Gen Z gender gap didn't show up in the election. yet. Most 2024 election polls do not disaggregate different age groups by gender, and even if they did, it would be foolish to try to draw firm conclusions. Studying is difficult in your 20s. Young people are less engaged in politics and have a higher proportion of independent and non-partisan voters. Their worldview remains malleable. Many of them are reluctant to answer questions, especially over the phone. In this situation, no matter how high the level of public opinion polls are, they show incredibly mixed possibilities when it comes to youth voting. recent USA Today/In a hypothetical rematch in 2024, Trump beat Biden among registered voters under 35, according to a Suffolk University poll. This is an almost unprecedented change in less than four years. In October new york times/Siena Poll found the youngest generation was evenly split between Trump and Biden. times Polls show Biden winning young voters by double digits despite losing ground overall.
What is going on in the minds of those young people, the older people who study them have not yet figured out. As always, the biggest rift may not be between young men and young women, but between young people and everyone else.