The World Economic Forum estimates that artificial intelligence (AI) will replace approximately 85 million jobs by 2025. Only 8 months left! A study by Goldman Sachs estimates that in the long term, artificial intelligence could replace 300 million full-time jobs. This could replace a quarter of jobs in the US and Europe.
But it also means new jobs and a productivity boom. And this could ultimately increase the total annual value of goods and services produced globally by 7%. The report predicts that two-thirds of jobs in the U.S. and Europe are “exposed to some degree of AI automation” and that about a quarter of all jobs could be performed entirely by AI.
In one of the first in-depth studies of GenAI's impact on corporate workers, Harvard joined MIT and Penn's Wharton School to examine the use of generative AI among hundreds of consultants working for the respected Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Research has shown that a whole range of tasks are performed more frequently, faster, and with higher quality than those who do not use AI. Overall, the study reported a 40% increase in productivity among the company's workers.
In another corporate example, just one month after going global with its OpenAI-powered virtual assistant, Klarna, a Swedish buy now, pay later company, published results demonstrating its ability to handle customer communications, make shoppers happier, and even increase revenue. I did. App-based AI chatbots have powered two-thirds of all customer service chats, or about 2.3 million conversations to date. Customer satisfaction ratings were reported at the same level as agents. Klarna, which announced its partnership with OpenAI early last year, said OpenAI was one of the first companies to integrate ChatGPT technology into its shopping plugin. The company estimates that chatbots could help improve revenue by $40 million in 2024 alone.
OpenAI's CEO predicted that in the future, almost all marketing-specific tasks will be performed by AI. Sam Altman says AI will do “95% of the work today that marketers rely on agencies, strategists and creative professionals to do.” And he said AGI will become a reality within five years. “Maybe it could be a little bit longer and I could get it.”
So what can we expect from higher education? Given the increasing pressure from states and consumers to make higher education more affordable, we can certainly expect GenAI to be explored as an option across colleges and universities. Having watched this field closely over the past two years, I believe we will see a steady and gradual decline in the workforce at universities as GenAI adapts to perform professional tasks more efficiently and effectively. Below is a starting list of some of the tasks that might first be included in automation with GenAI.
- Marketing and Campus Relations positions – Require minimal staffing/supervision, as per Altman's predictions.
- Admissions and Enrollment – Student recruitment and admissions counselors are replaced by chatbots in most cases. Similar to the Klarna example above, these bots can provide comprehensive and consistent advice to students. The bonus is that they are fluent and adept at writing, reading, speaking, and understanding foreign languages for students whose first language is not English.
- Department of Finance and Administration – Accounting and middle management positions are expected to be replaced by AI with minimal human supervision.
- Administrative Assistants – Reduce staff with minimal supervision of AI assistants at all administrative levels.
- Selected librarian customer and operational tasks can be performed effectively and efficiently through chatbots.
- Faculty for introductory and lower division classes will be replaced by artificial instructors supervised by experienced “master faculty.” These faculty teach one section and use the chatbot as an instructor to handle unique cases that arise across a dozen or more sections of the same class.
- Originally assumed by Benjamin Bloom in his research on student learning outcomes for student advising and tutoring, the two sigma difference indicates that if students have an individual teacher, their classroom performance improves by two standard deviations. Now Salman Khan is using Khanmigo, an OpenAI-based tutor, to report on its impact.
This is just a starting list of areas where AI could replace humans in universities in the next few years. How do you prepare for these changes? How do supervisors prepare vulnerable employees for such changes?
Earlier this year, I contacted Gemini pro, a GenAI application operated by Google, about some of the considerations related to layoffs, layoffs, reskilling, upskilling, and related actions in higher education institutions following GenAI human replacement. Gemini responded to the initial prompt:
Here's a list of things leaders facing the difficult choice of layoffs and retraining should consider when adopting generative AI technologies. There is no single right answer, and the best decision will depend on the specific circumstances of your business.
I. Financial Considerations
Layoff costs and retraining costs: Calculate the long-term financial impact of layoffs (severance packages, potential loss of morale and productivity) and retraining (training programs, lost productivity during training).
Potential ROI of Retraining: Evaluate the long-term benefits of investing in existing employees. Can a retrained workforce deliver greater productivity and quality improvements than hiring new talent?
Cost of loss of knowledge: Consider the value of skilled employees and the cost of losing organizational and process knowledge during layoffs.
Gemini went on to discuss in detail “ethical considerations, human resources and talent management, company culture and morale, operational agility and long-term strategy,” among others. I was particularly impressed by the attention paid to ethical, equity, and human impact issues.
It is important to recognize that these changes are upon us. Well-prepared institutions will be considering the challenges and opportunities by the end of this academic year. They will have facilitated rich public forums and discussions at the department, college, department, and institutional level. A variety of counseling services and opportunities for upskilling, retraining, and career change assistance are available to faculty and staff. The impact on personal careers, institutional stability, and student support is enormous. The opportunities to improve quality and reduce costs are also enormous. Will your institution be one of the leaders shaping the future of higher education, or will its service, quality and reputation be left behind?