Newly released New York Times/Siena poll finds President Joe Biden Hemorrhaging support among Latino voters.
that much Times/Siena Poll The release on Saturday showed that Biden is gaining significant ground among minority voters, including: Open a 9-point lead More Latinos than Trump by 50% – 41%. This is an increase of 15 points since February. Times/Siena Investigation Trump held a six-point lead among Latino voters, winning 46% of the group to Biden's 40%.
Biden's Growth of non-white voters—including a net 10-point increase among black voters—effectively erased Trump's lead among all registered voters in a recent Times/Siena poll, putting Biden at 45% and Trump at 46%. Times' February opinion poll Trump had an overall 5-point lead, with Biden 43% to Trump 48%.
Taking the polls at face value, Trump's approval rating among Latinos is still a historically high 41%, while Biden's approval rating is a historically low 50%. The best record for a Republican presidential candidate was in 2004, when President George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote.
In 2020, Biden won 59% to 38% of Latino voters. So while the incumbent president still has significant room to increase his support within the group, Trump may have already reached his limit.
last week we Survey conducted by Pew Research Center This raises questions about Trump's existence. including the times We report on whether Latino voters actually had a significant impact and, if so, whether those gains were enough to overturn the election. Given Biden's relative strength, So far, it's been with white voters.
Biden's continued strength with white voters puts the onus on Trump to win a historically high share of a voting group that doesn't typically lean Republican.
The conventional wisdom over the past few months has been that Biden is in trouble. Because he has support. Among Latinos (and potentially black voters as well).
However, looking at the current opinion poll results, Biden and Trump are relatively evenly matched At this stage of the contest, it is entirely plausible that the Biden campaign will win back some voters who are naturally inclined to vote Democratic.
Biden now appears to be doing exactly that. That means strengthening his support among Latino and black voters while securing his position against Trump.
And as we noted in Friday's article, the same Pew Research Center poll suggests that Democrats have not suffered a significant decline in approval ratings among black and Latino voters in the Trump era. In fact, Pew's data calls into question the entire premise that some kind of racial realignment has occurred among voters over the past few years.
The Times/Siena poll is not the only one showing Biden leading Trump since the State of the Union address in early March. in Tilt Newsletter The Saturday Times' Nate Cohn found that Biden averaged +1.4 points over Trump in 16 polls conducted before and after his fiery speech.
![Direct Biden-Trump votes from 16 polling organizations that participated in the primary before and after Biden's SOTU speech. Direct Biden-Trump votes from 16 polling organizations that participated in the primary before and after Biden's SOTU speech.](https://images.dailykos.com/images/1291127/large/Screenshot2024-04-15at1.07.49PM.png?1713216250)
While none of these revelations feel like a tectonic shift in the presidential race, they do seem to reflect the Biden campaign's growing advantage over Trump when it comes to election fundamentals, including: fundraisingtime taken campaignand invest advertising and group.
An old saying comes to mind: The only non-renewable resource in a campaign is time. And while Biden continues to campaign across the country, Trump will spend Most of the time spent in court For the next 6 weeks.
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