For those who follow politics every day, it can be downright crazy trying to understand why current opinion polls suggest the public is essentially evenly divided on the issue of Donald Trump's re-election. This is especially galling considering that Trump, just as he did in 2016, routinely continues to unearth startling new depths of depravity in words and actions that would easily disqualify any other candidate from consideration.
But rather than wallow in despair and anger over the seemingly rigid state of public opinion, it is useful, even essential, to keep the following in mind: Few voters pay attention.. Not only do they not pay attention to political news, they don't pay much attention to much news at all.
People who habitually click on The New York Times to see the morning headlines are outliers. People who log into politically relevant sites like Daily Kos (or, conversely, Daily Wire) are extreme outliers. Most people in this country and elsewhere now get their information by looking at their phones and selecting a headline or two on their home screen. Notifications appear thanks to an algorithmic feature based on your past browsing history and interests. They may not know who the Speaker of the House is or even who controls the House. They may not know where Ukraine is. They probably don't know the names of their members of Congress. But they may also know when the best time is to plant tulips.
Matt Robison wrote in Washington Monthly:Absorbing much of politics is not a reflection of intelligence or virtue, but rather a reflection of priorities.” The priorities of the person reading this right now probably depend on the politics of the country. But this is not a priority for most Americans. Whether they should be or not is an important question. In fact, they don't, at least not until the election is right around the corner.
Robison says:
According to research conducted by a pollster Ian Smith, until a few months before the election, people only spent about 10 minutes a week absorbing political news. This represents 0.1% of voter time, which is roughly the same amount of time voters spend. brushing their teeth.
And as we all know, some people spend less time brushing their teeth than others.
Robison interviewed Ian Smith, director of polling and analysis at The Hub Project, which helps put this often overlooked phenomenon into context.
According to Ian Smith, the number of news events Americans listened to the most last year was 10 minutes per week. It was a year that saw the first indictment of a former president and the rare ouster of a House speaker amid worsening economic conditions. The dysfunction of the Republican Party and the disastrous wars in Ukraine and the Middle East were in fact Chinese spy agencies.
But before reading the paragraph above, the amount of time readers of this page have thought about Chinese spy balloons in the past month, or even the past six months, is close to zero. Nonetheless, as Smith points out, it was the balloon story, much like the one that dominated the news last year that focused human attention on a submersible submarine that exploded underwater. These stories entered the public consciousness because they were novel and covered breathlessly by the news media (for easy profit). On the other hand, Kevin McCarthy's short-lived rise to the House speakership, which took 15 votes over four days, did not attract much attention except to a small segment of the population that tracks all things political.
I see the same thing about Donald Trump. Robison points out:
Why is Trump thriving politically despite his crimes? According to a YouGov poll conducted six weeks ago: half The state knows the court case exists. Only 55% had heard that he had been found guilty of sexual assault. Only 47% knew he had been accused of fraudulently inflating the value of his properties. (After the survey, a judge found Trump guilty of fraud and fined him $100.450 million.)
According to Robison, what's happening here, and what's most frustrating for those of us obsessed with Trump's daily antics, is that the American people are simply busy living their lives in other ways. They're attending their kids' soccer games, doing yard work, and figuring out their dinner budget. They are sharing their social activities on Facebook, TikTok or Instagram. I don't follow the latest economic trends, and I don't know how economic indicators or consumer prices are changing.
Simply put, they cannot reach conclusions or opinions when it comes to digesting news repeatedly over long periods of time. They have no idea about Trump's “Project 2025” or how the Supreme Court plans to change our form of government to favor corporate polluters.
Obviously, that's the fault of media institutions that are now essentially curated to cater to people's preferences. Currently, the majority of the American public is unaware of the urgency of the election, which is seven months away. Even though the stakes of the election are incredibly high. Since they don't even know what the risk is, there is no reason in their minds to pay close attention. yet.
None of this is particularly surprising. Sara Fischer, writing for Axios last month, pointed out:political news engagement And news is down significantly compared to last presidential primary cycle as Americans continue to focus their attention on lighter topics like sports and entertainment.”
But as Fischer points out, the last “presidential primary cycle” occurred while the country was still in the midst of a global pandemic, with the country often glued to its TV screens and news Internet feeds. This led to stronger voter interest and participation as Americans felt that their economic and social lives were literally at stake.
That sense of urgency no longer exists, and most Americans appear to have reverted to their previous default state (general inattention) by the time the election actually begins.
As Robison points out, the good news is that all of this is about to change. That's why we campaign. In the coming months, voters will hear that Trump wants local police forces to use their limited resources to round up 10 million people and put them in detention centers.
They will continue to learn that he plans to destroy the very federal government that sends him Social Security checks and transform it into a theocratic trough for unbridled corporate greed and institutionalized discrimination.
They will receive very clear reminders sent to their homes and internet feeds every day about Trump's disastrous mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, among many other examples of his proven and glaring incompetence and corruption.
By then, they will know exactly how many crimes Trump has been accused of (his hidden trials will be over) and what those crimes are. Because they especially cannot escape the onslaught of multibillion-dollar media campaigns. It was created to tell them that. And they will learn that he pledged “on day one” to return to society those imprisoned for “the most recorded act of political violence in history.”
They will also continue to hear the personal stories of women who have been harmed and harmed by Trump's Supreme Court appointments and erasure of reproductive rights. If Trump thinks he can counter the power of such testimony in voter-rich suburban America by talking about the immigrant threat he has exacerbated, he might be willing to try.
One lesson we can take from last week's relatively obscure state race in Alabama is that voters can react strongly when suddenly presented with new information that surprises or disturbs them. American voters have not yet reached that point.
Many countries are still waiting for the traces of winter to end. They care about nothing but the prospect of spending more time outdoors and a total solar eclipse.
But assuming the Biden campaign does its job and makes the most of the clearly obvious opportunities, voters will pay close attention when necessary. As Robison points out, that may not be the most satisfying or reassuring explanation for the tentative movements we see in national opinion polls.It can help us all avoid sweating the small stuff.“
President Joe Biden is effectively running with the election still seven months away. In such a polarized political environment, it is not a bad idea for the incumbent president to begin his election campaign in earnest. Rather, it is a starting point from the efforts of people who are already interested and informed, and who fully understand the stakes right now.
It would be all of us.