The first downballot primary night of 2024 is upon us! Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Texas are all holding nominating conventions to determine who will be on the ballot in dozens of important races this fall. We'll be liveblogging the results here and covering the returns closely.on.
main race: Preview | Downballot Podcast | live cheat sheet
result: Politico | new york times
Updated: Wednesday, March 6, 2024 · 4:01:56 AM +00:00 · Steve Singerer
California:Polls are closed in the West, and if past is prologue, a significant number of early votes should begin to be counted within the first hour.
Updated: Wednesday, March 6, 2024 · 3:58:33 +00:00 · Steve Singerer
AL-01(R):After getting about 10,000 votes from Jerry Carl's base in the Mobile area, he split the vote in Coffee County (Moore's area) to put Moore ahead, but now he's in a tight race in southern Alabama by less than 1% (raw vote margin). : 347 votes).
Updated: Wednesday, March 6, 2024 · 3:49:45 AM +00:00 · Steve Singerer
AR-03 (R):One attempt at a primary on the incumbent's right flank failed tonight, as incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Womack survived a 55%-45% victory over far-right state Rep. Clint Penzo.
Updated: Wednesday, March 6, 2024 · 3:42:50 AM +00:00 · Steve Singerer
AL-01(R):A healthy drop in voting in the western part of the district had a predictable impact, with AL-01 incumbent Rep. Jerry Carl leading former AL-02 Rep. Barry Moore by half. Moore now leads 53%-47%, leaving much of Carl's Mobile County base behind.
Updated: Wednesday, March 6, 2024 · 3:39:21 +00:00 · Steve Singerer
TX-23(R):We have up to 88% of precincts reporting across this huge region of West Texas, and it's starting to get difficult to see how incumbent Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is avoiding a runoff. He holds a significant lead over gunsmith and YouTube personality Brandon Herrera, nearly 25 points, but has received less than 46% of the vote.
Updated: Wednesday, March 6, 2024 · 3:34:18 +00:00 · Steve Singerer
TX-26(R): Today's evidence that the modern Republican Party is a cult of personality comes from this opening. A conservative journalist named Brandon Gill has exactly two things going for him (he's Dinesh D'Souza's son-in-law and he supports Donald Trump) and he's absolutely embracing the entire GOP field here. With an 82% reporting rate, he is 40 points ahead of his closest challenger, Scott Armey (son of former Rep. Dick Armey).
Updated: Wednesday, March 6, 2024 · 3:19:04 AM +00:00 · Steve Singerer
North Carolina:Considering that runoffs are relatively easy to avoid in North Carolina (only 30% is the threshold), it's quite surprising that we could see up to three runoffs in the U.S. House of Representatives. David Nir has already covered NC-08 at one point, with Rep. Mark Harris sitting right on the threshold with most of his precincts reporting. Meanwhile, in the newly drawn work,NC-06Trump-backed lobbyist Addison McDowell takes Greensboro and the deep red turf in the southwest, where he lacks a two-point lead (26%-24%) over former Rep. Mark Walker. inNC-13Kelly Daughtry, a wealthy lawyer who surrounds Raleigh, has a clear lead but is below the 30 percent threshold at 28.5 percent. Businessman Fred van Canon and prosecutor Brad Knott are separated by less than 900 votes for second place.
Super Tuesday is now about 3 hours away. Many races are already scheduled and others are well underway. Looking at the headlines:
- North Carolina:The Tar Heel State had the gubernatorial showdown we were hoping for, as both state Attorney General Josh Stein and Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson easily won their primaries. After a seven-figure bid by conservatives to win the Democratic primary for attorney general, Democrats have secured their strongest candidate yet in the form of U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson. Additionally, down-ballot, several Republican House primaries are on the periphery of potential runoffs. Meanwhile, a handful of conservative Democrats in the state Legislature who are running in districts that are much bluer than their voting records suggest are headed for defeat tonight.
- Texas:Just a few minutes ago, the November U.S. Senate race was confirmed. That's because Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred will easily win the Democratic primary and represent the best pick-up opportunity for incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and the U.S. Democrats. . Meanwhile, several competitive U.S. House races are still being tabulated and there is absolute bloodshed at the legislative level. That's because perhaps more than a dozen incumbent Republican House members are at risk of defeat, as is Gov. Greg Abbott. school vouchers) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (angry about being impeached for being almost comically unethical) went on a revenge tour.
- Arkansas:One big race you can see hereAR-03(R)Incumbent Assemblyman Steve Womack leads far-right state Rep. Clint Penzo by about 55%-45%.
- Alabama:The calculations here were fairly glacial, but both the Republican primary in AL-01 and the Democratic primary in AL-02 were close to their early returns.