With the world's two dominant OEMs fully booked until the end of the decade, is there room for new competitors to emerge?
As demand for commercial jets continues to clog the assembly lines of Boeing and Airbus, a new competitor threatens to break their duopoly.
Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) represents the Chinese government's bold plan to establish a competitive position in the global aerospace market. Founded in 2008, the Shanghai-based manufacturer aims to reduce China's dependence on Western aircraft manufacturers.
Although still in its early stages, COMAC has made significant progress with its ambitious aircraft program, including the ARJ21, C919, and the upcoming C929 and C939. Each of these projects highlights China's determination to become a leader in the global aerospace industry.
But how big of a threat is COMAC?
The short answer is not much. At least that's the case for now. Currently, COMAC has a relatively small presence in Chinese skies and minimal exposure elsewhere. Two of its products, the ARJ21 regional jet and the C919 short- and medium-range airliner, are currently in production at a rapid pace. Two widebody products (C929 and C939) are in the design phase.
ARJ21: Chinese regional jet
![COMAC ARJ21](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/W020200717612879919395.jpeg)
The ARJ21 marks COMAC's first foray into the commercial aircraft market. ARJ21 (ARJ stands for “Advanced Regional Jet”) operates short-haul routes and seats 70 to 105 passengers in a 2-3 configuration. Development of this twin-engine, single-aisle jet began in 2002 with the goal of competing directly with existing regional jets such as the Bombardier CRJ and Embraer E-Jets.
From concept to commercial service, this type of journey has been fraught with challenges. Originally, COMAC was scheduled to make its maiden flight in 2005 and enter commercial service in mid-2006. However, the program suffered significant delays, with the prototype only revealed in 2007 and its first flight taking place on November 28, 2008. These setbacks, primarily due to design and certification issues, delayed the aircraft's entry into service until June 28, 2016. Operated its first profitable flight.
Questions about ARJ21's originality
![Jiangxi Airlines ARJ21](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/W020200717612878481447.jpeg)
The ARJ21 features Antonov-designed wings and is powered by two rear-mounted General Electric CF34 engines. The aircraft's design, which some critics liken to the CRJ or Boeing 717, is claimed by COMAC to be entirely original. The ARJ21-700 is a standard model that can accommodate 70 to 95 passengers, while the expanded ARJ21-900, similar to the Bombardier CRJ900 or Embraer 175-E2, can accommodate 95 to 105 passengers. Additional variants include freighter and advanced versions, called ARJ21F and ARJ21B respectively.
Certified in January 2023, the ARJ21CCF (Comac Converted Freighter) boasts a maximum payload of 22,377 pounds and a range of 1,726 miles. Chengdu Airlines took delivery of its first two converted cargo planes in October 2023.
The ARJ21B is expected to carry 20 passengers in a single-class configuration.
International approach and future prospects
![Chengdu Airlines ARJ21](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/1620px-B-3328@SHA_20191112105701-1160x773.jpg)
While ARJ21 primarily operates domestic routes within mainland China, Indonesian airline TransNusa became the first international customer of the type in 2022. The airline currently operates two ARJ21-700s and has a further 28 on order.
Brunei's Gallop Air placed an order for 15 ARJ21s in September 2023. There are also reports that ECAir, the national airline of the Republic of Congo, is considering acquiring three ARJ21s.
There are currently 146 ARJ21 aircraft in service, with more slowly but steadily coming into service. This type recently carried its 10 millionth passenger.
C919: China's challenger to the A320 and 737 MAX
![Cormac C919](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/W020230529325935788271.jpeg)
The C919 represents COMAC's most significant effort to challenge the Airbus-Boeing monopoly in the single-aisle jet market. Designed to seat 150 to 190 passengers, the aircraft is aimed at short- and medium-haul routes, competing directly with the more efficient Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families.
Development of the C919 began in 2008 and its first flight took place on May 5, 2017. After extensive testing and certification, launch customer China Eastern Airlines took delivery of its first C919 on May 28, 2023.
COMAC will produce shortened and extended variants of the C919.
![Cormac C919](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/1620px-B-919A@PEK_20221226151722-1160x773.jpg)
Powered by two CFM International Leading Edge Aviation Propulsion (LEAP) engines, the C919 shares many design characteristics with the Airbus A320, including similar wingspan and fuselage dimensions. COMAC is strengthening its market appeal by developing shortened and extended variants of the C919 that can seat 130 to 240 passengers and have a range of up to 3,500 miles.
The shortened version focuses on high-altitude destinations within 2,500 miles, while the extended version has a range of up to 3,500 miles.
C919 production and market acceptance
![](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/COMAC_C919_-_Commercial_Aircraft_Corporation_Of_China_AN4748979.jpg)
The response to this type has been much stronger than that of the ARJ21, with over 1,500 orders placed for the C919. However, production is progressing slowly, with COMAC aiming to achieve annual production of 150 aircraft by 2028. Notable international orders include US-based aircraft lessor GE Capital Aviation Services and Irish aviation leasing company AerCap. Tibet Airlines has ordered 40 shortened C919s to operate in the Himalayan highlands. Air China and China Southern Airlines also ordered 100 C919s each.
China Eastern Airlines is currently the only operator of this type, with six C919-100s in service and a further 100 on order. The airline expects to have 10 C919s in its fleet by the end of 2024.
Despite the slow start, the future of the C919 looks promising, at least domestically, as COMAC works to increase production.
Chinese officials hope to receive European approval around 2025 so they can expand their international activities. But industry experts say that's unlikely.
C929: Long-term vision
![Model of C929](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/CR929_mockup_Paris_2017-1160x372.png)
The C929 is COMAC's ambitious project to enter the long-haul widebody market, competing with the Airbus A330 and Boeing 787.
Initially, the project was a Sino-Russian joint venture to replace the Ilyushin Il-96 under the flag of China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Corporation (CRAIC). The first flight of the aircraft, called CRAIC CR (China-Russia) 929, is scheduled to take place between 2025 and 2028. However, the project suffered setbacks due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In 2023, COMAC announced that it would continue the venture independently, renaming the project C929.
Design, development and future prospects of C929
![C929 interior rendering](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/1537px-Paris_Air_Show_2017_COMAC_C929_cabin_cropped-1160x815.png)
Currently in the detailed design phase, the C929 is planned to be offered in three variants with varying capacities and ranges. The -500 variant seats 250 passengers and has a range of 8,700 miles, while the -600 and -700 variants accommodate 280 and 320 passengers and offer a range of 7,500 miles and 6,200 miles respectively. In full economy configuration, it can potentially accommodate up to 440 passengers.
By comparison, the Airbus A350 has a range of 9,600 miles, while the Boeing 787-8 has a range of 8,500 miles.
All final specifications are subject to final design and materials.
The final choice of C929 engine has not yet been decided, but initial production will likely rely on engines from Western manufacturers such as Rolls-Royce or General Electric. Despite the failure of the Sino-Russian venture, COMAC aims to deliver the first fuselage by September 2027, although test flights are unlikely to occur before 2030.
C939: Just released
![Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport exterior](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Airport_Terminal_JP6824292.jpg)
The C929 certainly won't be the only wide-body jetliner produced by COMAC.
Earlier this month, Chinese media reported that COMAC had begun preliminary design work for another dual-aisle wide-body jet, the C939.
The aircraft, which will compete with the Boeing 777 (including the 777X) and the Airbus A350, is said to be able to accommodate up to 400 passengers.
Although not much is currently known to the public, the C939 signals COMAC's intention to challenge the dominance of the world's leading OEMs in the long-haul segment.
The Way Forward: Challenges and Opportunities
![COMAC ARJ21F](https://avgeekery.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/1350px-SGP-Singapore_Air_Central_Comac_ARJ21-700P2F_B-3388_@_Singapore_Airshow_2024-02-25-1160x928.jpg)
But it's still years away, maybe a decade or more. And a lot can happen between now and then. So for now, the Airbus-Boeing duopoly is safe. But it's hard to imagine what the world will look like 10 years from now. If the past decade has taught us anything, it's that too much can change too quickly.
COMAC's journey from ARJ21 to C939 demonstrates China's growing capabilities and ambitions in aerospace manufacturing. However, there is a long way to go before it becomes a global aerospace company. COMAC's production capacity is still severely limited and significant efforts will be required to scale up to meet demand.
The company aims to produce 150 aircraft per year by 2028, but to reach the level of production efficiency and technical support of Airbus and Boeing by 2035, it will need: considerable Development.
The global aerospace industry is developing rapidly, and China is expected to overtake the United States as the world's largest aviation market in the next few years. These changes present both opportunities and challenges for COMAC. The company is benefiting from strong domestic demand, but must overcome technological, regulatory and geopolitical obstacles to gain an international foothold.