On February 14, Indonesians will choose a successor to a man who is as popular as he was when he first became president nearly a decade ago. This is unusual for a leader who has led democracy for a long time.
The international community also seems to share enthusiasm for President Joko Widodo. An affable moneyman, Widodo has focused on boosting the economy of the world's third most populous democracy and attracting foreign investment.
Whoever takes the leadership position will find himself in a conflicted position. Its two biggest partners are China and the United States, both of which have clashed in the South China Sea, which Indonesia also claims.
And the winning candidate will be caught between the need to protect Indonesia's fragile environment and the pressure to develop its profitable natural resources.
So far, Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi, has avoided friction with Indonesia's foreign partners by choosing not to project the power that comes with being Southeast Asia's largest economy. In return he got funding.
Indonesians choose one of three candidates
There are three candidates vying for Widodo's seat, and if the debate between them goes anywhere, it is unlikely that the next president of the world's fourth most populous country will change that approach.
Prabowo Subianto is a former general who failed twice. However, opinion polls predict that he has the best chance of winning this election. He said in an interview with Compass newspaper late last year that he believes in good neighbor policies. “My foreign policy principle is that a thousand friends are too few and one enemy is too many,” the Compass newspaper quoted him as saying at a meeting. That's pretty much what his opponents promise when they try to discuss foreign affairs.
This election, the focus is overwhelmingly on lowering prices and creating more jobs. Nearly 60% of the archipelago's more than 200 million eligible voters are millennials or Generation Z. — Generally defined as people born between 1997 and 2012. Generation Z alone accounts for a quarter of the total. Naturally, they are the ones whose candidates are on the court.
China's growing dominance in Indonesia's economy may be worrying to those who watch geopolitics, but it makes little economic sense to Indonesian politicians who ignore China's cash as Indonesia's second-largest investor with a voracious appetite for minerals. doesn't exist.
Indonesia is the world's largest producer of nickel, a metal increasingly preferred as an essential component in electric vehicles. China has a strong presence in domestic nickel mining and smelting.
Environment vs. Employment
But if that means promising more jobs in an economy where about 60% of the workforce works in the informal sector and where a living wage is barely guaranteed, it's not at all clear whether the average voter really cares where the money comes from. .
China's territorial claims south china sea Meanwhile, several countries in the region are opposed and represent a geopolitical challenge.
Subianto and the other leading presidential candidate, Ganjar Pranowo., It is proposed to strengthen the military, especially the navy, of the great archipelago. Third, Anies Baswedan, The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations wants to take the lead in handling potential conflicts, although it has no experience taking on such a role.
There is clearly no intention to escalate tensions over these territorial disputes, but it will still pose a tricky challenge for whoever ascends to the presidential palace.
And that's one reason why the next president will likely strive to maintain a strong relationship with the United States to balance China's influence.
confront foreign powers
Among the candidates, only two have extensive overseas experience.
Ganjar Pranowo is a former provincial governor and is backed by the country's largest political party. He is better known for his efforts to improve the lives of Indonesian farmers. But his vice-presidential running mate may prove even more controversial in the West due to past proposals to ban same-sex sex.
Academic and activist Anies Baswedan, who came third in the poll, studied in the United States and earned a doctorate. However, reviews of his time as governor of the capital Jakarta were mixed, and he was accused of openly seeking votes from radical Islamist groups during his election, which were later banned by the government.
But the best known outside Indonesia is Prabowo Subianto, who was accused of human rights abuses primarily during his time as an army general during the Indonesian occupation of East Timor and later during the fall of his father-in-law, President Suharto.
But in this campaign, the 72-year-old has transformed himself into a “loving grandfather” to younger voters who appear to ignore his dark past, according to political commentator Virdika Rizky Utama.
And although he is the oldest of the candidates, his running mate is the youngest and happens to be the son of a popular outgoing president.