The report's authors detail a number of ways in which the use of drones in the South China Sea conflict could be radically different from current practice, most notably in the Ukraine war, which has been called the first full-scale drone war.
Differences from the Ukrainian battlefield
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, drones have assisted in the first three stages of what military experts describe as the 'kill chain' – finding, targeting and tracking targets – and delivering explosives. Drones have a short lifespan because they are often shot down or rendered useless by frequency jamming devices that interfere with the pilot's control. According to the report, quadcopters, commercial drones often used in warfare, have an average flight life of only three times.
Drones like these would be much less useful during a possible invasion of Taiwan. “The Ukraine-Russia conflict would have been largely a land conflict, whereas the conflict between the U.S. and China would have been largely an air and sea conflict,” said Zak Kallenborn, a drone analyst and adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The report broadly agrees with its predictions. Small, off-the-shelf drones popularized in Ukraine have too short flight times to be used effectively in the South China Sea.
underwater war
Instead, a conflict with Taiwan would likely utilize underwater and maritime drones. The report's authors say the Taiwan Strait is likely to be the first day of such conflict, with Taiwan located just 100 miles from mainland China. that much Zhu Haiyun, China's advanced autonomous aircraft carrier, could also send autonomous underwater drones to scout for U.S. submarines. Even if drones don't sink submarines, they could launch attacks that could divert U.S. and Taiwanese attention and resources.
The authors also wrote that China is also likely to flood the South China Sea with decoy drone boats “to make it difficult for U.S. missiles and submarines to distinguish between expensive ships and useless unmanned merchant ships.”
Most drone innovations are not focused on maritime applications, but these uses are not unprecedented. Ukrainian forces have garnered attention for modifying jet skis to operate via remote control and using them to threaten and even sink Russian ships in the Black Sea.
more autonomy
Drones currently have little autonomy. They are usually piloted by humans, and while some can autopilot to fixed GPS points, they are generally not very useful in war scenarios where the targets are moving. But the report's authors say autonomous technology is advancing rapidly, and countries with more sophisticated autonomous drone fleets will have a significant advantage.
What would that look like? Both the U.S. and China are spending millions of dollars in defense research on swarming, a strategy where drones autonomously navigate and perform missions in groups. This technology has not yet been deployed, but if successful, it could be a game-changer in potential conflicts.