Ten years ago, amid a wave of protests rocking the Arab world, hopeful young Yemenis took to the streets of Sanaa to demand social justice and an end to decades of corrupt dictatorship.
Instead, they suffered civil war, foreign intervention, and ruination of the country.
Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh ruled Yemen for 33 years, managing and exploiting numerous internal conflicts to maintain his kleptocratic supremacy.
Alarmed by signs of democracy, Gulf Arab monarchies gave Saleh a soft landing, prompting him to resign in 2012 while maintaining immunity from prosecution and continuing his political role.
They replaced him with his former deputy, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, as part of a political transition dominated by existing parties backed by the United Nations.
Two years later, the Houthi rebels, a Zaydi Shiite revivalist movement in the north, cut short the stalled transition by advancing on the southern city of Aden to capture Sanaa and thwart their attempts to ravage all of Yemen.
The battle-hardened Houthi rebels, loosely allied with Iran, now have the upper hand against the Saudi-backed Hadi government. These coalitions of forces are often more focused on fighting each other than their common enemies.
The war in Yemen may have a messy final outcome.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates intervened six years ago with Western weapons and other support in a conflict that has plunged millions of Yemenis into a man-made abyss of hunger and suffering unparalleled in the world today.
According to the World Food Program (WFP), “despite ongoing humanitarian assistance, 16.2 million Yemenis are food insecure.” That's more than half the population of the country located at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.
Men with guns, drones, missiles and bombs may have temporarily silenced the youth, women and civil society groups who first called for change.
“Yemen is suffering from a backlash,” said Peter Salisbury, senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group. “This is a counterrevolution initially designed to prevent young people from having a say in how the country is run.”
The war may now be barreling toward a messy endgame as the Saudis seek a face-saving exit in their failed attempt to crush movements they see as proxies of Iran.
Iran has indeed helped the Houthis with drone and missile technology and other support, but Tehran has not shown that it can give orders to a group it did not create and is not ideologically tied to the Islamic Republic.
“The Iranians are playing an increasingly important and growing role in Yemen, but they cannot remotely control the Houthis as some have assumed,” Salisbury said.
The United States stopped supporting the war.
The United States, which along with Britain and France supported the Saudi-led coalition that has bombed and blockaded much of Yemen for the past six years, will now end support for their war effort. North Korea has appointed a special envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking, to halt sales of “offensive” weapons and support UN peace efforts.
Saudi Arabia, under pressure from new U.S. President Joe Biden, has rejected proposals including a nationwide ceasefire, partial reopening of Sanaa airport and Houthi rebel ports, and sharing of tariff revenue.
Frustrated, the Houthis demand an unconditional end to the Saudi siege before a ceasefire is considered.
Saudi weakness and divisions among Yemen's enemies have led Houthi forces to increase drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities and other targets in recent weeks.
They also attacked Marib, the last outpost of Hadi's government in the north. Capturing Marib, a region with a huge population boosted by gas, oil and Yemeni refugees, would greatly strengthen the Houthis' influence in the peace talks.
The Houthis may yet suffer setbacks on the ground, but they have proven that the Saudi-led coalition and its local allies are unable to destroy them.
lack of trust
A chastened Saudi Arabia may be forced to abandon many of its war goals and cut direct deals with rebel militias to protect its territory from attack.
The Houthis own land where at least 70% of Yemen's people live. Their opponents are based in Aden, where Hadi is in an uneasy alliance with southern separatists backed by the UAE. Although the president enjoys international recognition, his administration has little credibility inside and outside Yemen.
It will be difficult to achieve a ceasefire, let alone lasting peace.
The Houthis still do not trust the United States, an ally of Saudi Arabia, despite Biden's reset of ties with the kingdom and his apparent dislike of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler and architect of the war.
The Houthis also have reservations about the United Nations, which is leading negotiations based on a unilateral Security Council resolution adopted when the war began demanding compensation for Hadi and the withdrawal and disarmament of the Houthis.
The resolution, which reflects the position of Saudi Arabia, a major party to the war, upsets the balance of power on the ground and is still in effect.
Rich countries have cut humanitarian aid to Yemen.
Even if a ceasefire is eventually agreed, it will be too late for many.
Already 80% of Yemenis are in need of help, and the United Nations warns of a famine in the devastated country where many people cannot afford to buy food.
Outbreaks of cholera and coronavirus add to the misery. Fuel shortages disrupt water supplies, hospitals and aid delivery. According to the World Food Program (WFP), the war has driven nearly 4 million people from their homes.
But rich countries, which are spending huge sums domestically to mitigate the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, have decided to cut humanitarian aid to Yemen.
This month, donors who have made billions of dollars from arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pledged to give less than half the $3.85 billion sought by the United Nations. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said cutting off aid was a “death sentence.”
Callously, corrupt Yemeni leaders, politicians and profiteers on all sides have grown rich through a “war economy” through extortion, looting and misappropriation of public salaries, tax revenues and foreign aid, while their compatriots are starving. .
stumbling block ahead
Stopping the major conflict will not necessarily bring stability to Yemen. In Yemen, a dizzying array of political, tribal and regional disputes will complicate peace efforts.
“With the Saudi airstrikes, you see the end of a major war that attracted international attention,” Salisbury said. “You still see various groups waging smaller wars, fighting each other for supremacy.” .
He argued that the UN should take a broader approach to address grievances, involve more political parties and work with non-embattled civil society groups.
Nesmah Mansour, a young Yemeni female activist who previously worked for an organization advising UN envoys, describes their experience as disappointing.
“They (UN officials and diplomats) only listened to the warring parties, the Houthis and the government, and ignored other peace-minded voices, such as women’s groups working to build regional peace,” she said. said.
“The compensation system for war perpetrators has not been working properly for the past seven years,” Mansour said. “We therefore need a more comprehensive and accountable peace process,” Mansour said, pointing to the poverty, insecurity and hunger stalking his country.
“It is terrible to see how the fabric of society is being damaged. “As the years go by, reconciliation becomes more difficult,” he said.