In a new Fox News poll, Trump's favorite network ranks President Biden as the frontrunner in the 2024 election.
No single poll should be taken as gospel, but Fox News reported:
President Biden is the frontrunner in a virtual showdown with former President Trump for the first time since October, with positive outlook for the economy rising slightly to the highest level so far during Biden's presidency, according to a new Fox News national survey. .
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The key point is that independents prefer Biden by 9 points. This is a change from May, when Trump was favored by 2 points. The same number of independents say leadership (59%) and honesty (58%) are very important in their voting decisions, but they are 11 points more likely to say Biden is a strong leader compared to just 23 points more likely to say Biden is a strong leader. It's high. More on that later.
Biden has seen his support grow among independents, African Americans, women and seniors. Trump remains strong among men, rural voters and white evangelical voters. In other words, Trump's base has remained the same over the past eight years.
A factor driving Biden's growth with independent voters is Trump's felony convictions. Other polls have found that more than 20% of independent voters would not consider voting for Trump if he were convicted of a felony.
Experts have been predicting for months that poll numbers would change once voters start paying attention to the election. This is still going to be a very tight race. One poll doesn't change anything, but the past month or two has clearly shifted momentum toward a Biden presidency.
Trump has a problem, and he seems to lack the campaign infrastructure to expand his base and appeal to voters who are different from those already committed to him. If inflation continues to improve, President Trump could sink by November.