Over the weekend, a friend called me to express concerns about the presidential race, a common occurrence during a typical week. We all have good reason to fear Donald Trump winning a second presidency.
In response, I briefly explained why I think President Joe Biden currently holds a narrow but substantial lead. Now let me share it with you all.
1) Trump is tied in the polls despite people not paying attention.
It's an old political adage that voters don't start paying attention to election season until after Labor Day. May 13th Gallup poll It found that 71% of Americans care about race, which means one-third do not. And the numbers were most pronounced among independents, with just 61% expressing interest. This is especially notable because a significant number of potential voters have not seen Trump's recent erratic and disgruntled behavior. also, Siena poll The New York Times found that 17% of voters blamed Biden for losing abortion rights. As more people start paying attention, this misunderstanding will be corrected.
But despite these difficulties, the polls are still underway. tied by nature. In fact, if you look at the numbers from some polls, the undecided rate is ridiculously high. An Ipsos poll conducted by Reuters showed Trump leading by 41 to 39. YouGov ranks 42nd-40th compared to Trump. all citizen opinion poll For Daily Kos, it is evenly fixed at 45-45. And Morning Consult shows it 44-43 for Biden. Given that Trump has It has never reached 47% in two elections. And there is no evidence that he has expanded his support base. The biggest challenge will be getting reluctant Biden voters to show up. That will happen once the race starts in earnest.
2) Where will Trump’s growth come from? He has reached his demographic peak
Trump won 46.1% of the popular vote in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020. Since then, his older generation left the voter At a higher rate than the Democratic Party's young core base, it doesn't. Anti-Vax COVID-19 Support.
You can see Trump trying to find new voters. had his miserable speech At the Liberal National Convention, he lost his cool on stage and angrily declared, “Maybe you don't want to win.” Or his A comically incompetent effort. To woo black voters, like rallies at black churches that were mostly filled with white people.
That one group is What's open to Trump are young white men who feel alienated by the current political climate. politically divided Boldly from colleagues.
3) As people realize that Trump is responsible Dobbssupport will decrease
We've already mentioned this above, but it's worth emphasizing. Abortion and democracy were two issues that led Democrats to an atypical and ahistorical victory in the 2022 midterm elections, despite Biden's continued personal popularity. Abortion was such a strong and dominant issue that it overcame voter discontent with inflation at a time when inflation was much higher than its current rate.
In the two years since, nothing has lessened the impact of abortion. If anything, more people are finding out that abortion is actually an abortion. health care thanks for the story like this People magazine (audience size: 85 million). This is no longer a niche issue in the political press. This has become mainstream, which explains why the pro-abortion side wins every vote, even in red states like Kansas and Kentucky. Roe vs. Wade Overturned.
And instead of sitting still, Republican lawmakers are focusing all their efforts on in vitro fertilization and contraception. Helpless to block the way. Republicans are digging deeper into this problem than condemning it.
4) Trump's conviction will take a toll over time. The polls were cruel to him.
I wrote down the numbers. here. In short, Trump cannot afford to lose any support in a tied primary. What do his beliefs do? Bleeding support.
And two weeks after I wrote that story, a poll was taken. yet It shows how Trump's beliefs are causing lasting damage to his campaign. On Tuesday Ipsos poll Politico found that 9% of Republicans and 15% of independents were “less likely to support Trump” because of his convictions. Additionally, 23% of independent voters said a conviction was “very important” to their vote, while 7% said it was “somewhat important.”
Remember, Trump expand His support. It's like this now cost accounting Him.
5) The Democratic Party's overwhelming performance in the by-election, which is an actual election, not a public opinion poll.
Polls Polls Have you seen the latest polls?
I write that the pre-Labor Day polls are interesting but not conclusive. But do you know what's better than opinion polls? Actual election results. Our Daniel Donner I did research And “by-elections have proven to be really useful in analyzing the electoral environment. “There is still a good long-term correlation between the by-election results and the November election results,” he said.
And what do this cycle's special elections tell us? that much same thing They told us in 2022 when they predicted a Democratic victory that year. Democrats are outperforming Biden's 2020 benchmark numbers.
Some corners of the political commentators are heavily invested. denying this theory, primarily arguing that presidential voters don't look like special election voters. But it does show which party is more energetic, more active, and more likely to win the vote. This is a very important factor in any general election. Of course, when it comes to the media, the Democrats always lose. Are Republicans more energetic? This is bad for the Democratic Party. Has the Democratic Party become more active? This is not good for the Democratic Party.
But I will remain consistent, and Donner's data backs it up. In other words, the more energetic side is more likely to win. This isn't rocket science. It’s (data-based) common sense.
6) Trump underperformed his poll numbers in the primaries.
I like the daily course title: “Polls still like Trump better than voters.” And that's true. During the Republican primary, Trump Consistently underperforming His poll numbers. Nate Cohn, The New York Times I have a few theories Why. My guess? People who support Trump fear his alternative less than those who fear him.
But if nothing else, the notion that the polls are missing some kind of hidden Trump vote is not borne out by the facts.
7) Inflation is under control but still a problem.
Republicans have been unable to make inflation a decisive issue in 2022. All historical advantages The Democratic Party's president is the 'out' party in the midterm elections, has an approval rating in the 30s, and has an inflation rate approaching double digits.
now? that step back At 3.3%, we are quickly approaching historical standards. The best It is one of the best economies in the world. Republicans will certainly make this their problem, and in politics they will lose if they explain it. This is a losing issue for the Democratic Party, but it is less persuasive than it was two years ago, and it is an issue that did not have any particular influence in the election even then.
One way Democrats can figure things out is by hammering out Trump's crazy tariff proposal.
8) Republicans have been trying to make immigration a major election issue for years, but it hasn't worked.
For reasons not worth exploring now, the Republicans won the immigration debate.
There was some tragic news this weekend for Rachel Morin. was murdered A fire started by an undocumented immigrant from El Salvador only adds fuel. Now the problem is so toxic that the reliably progressive governor of Maryland, Wes Moore, has said: expressed the need Busing large numbers of immigrants to cities across the country for immigration reform is not a sustainable strategy.
Republicans, on the other hand, have never made immigration a particularly important election issue. It's too abstract for most people to understand. actually Mind you, once we get past the performative hysteria. And Trump handed Biden a gift when he sabotaged a deal he struck with Republican lawmakers. It's even harder for him to say that he can do something about it, since Trump himself is literally the reason the Republican Party has failed to pass explicitly conservative immigration legislation.
Here's why Biden negotiated that deal. because Immigration hurts the Democratic Party. He was neutering the problem in November. Nonetheless, Trump's intransigence helps mitigate the damage.
9) Democrats fear Trump more than Republicans fear Biden, which affects intensity.
Oh, this is a big deal: march. NORC Chicken The Associated Press said, “Democrats feel more fear and anger about Trump than Republicans feel about Biden.” And that makes sense.
A Biden win would improve the economy for Republicans, especially those who rely on government benefits to survive. The worst that could happen is that abortion rights advance, but that segment of the Republican base is already at maximum participation. A significant number of Republican voters don't care.
On the other hand, if Trump wins, we literally lose our rights. We already have, and he's aiming for more. that far It's scarier, and fear is a powerful political motivator.
10) Trump is an incoherent mess who is more interested in airing grievances than presenting a focused, popular agenda.
Seriously, what on earth is Trump doing? Will Republicans actually bother to lay out a party platform this time, or will they punt like they did in 2020? Because the current Republican platform is “Trump is rambling at this moment.”
There's a reason Biden supports it I want Trump to participate in the debate. Next week: He knows Trump can't string two coherent sentences together to save his life. And while his endless list of grievances may motivate some supporters, he needs to expand beyond his core base.
11) Trump is siphoning donations from the Republican Party for legal fees and personal fraud
Just a few weeks ago, Trump had already spent $100 million in donations on legal fees. He's putting millions of dollars into his business and is happy to campaign. This is money that won't be used to attack Biden on television, open field offices, fund direct mail, or a million other politically useful resources.
Meanwhile, Democrats at all levels are raising significantly more money than their Republican counterparts.
Money may not be the determining factor in politics, but it is important.
Here are some notable stories:
Trump demands funding be cut if Republican candidates use his name or likeness during campaigns
Trump campaign warns Republican candidates not to raise funds following Trump conviction
Trump tells donors to give money 'nominally' to non-Republicans
Democratic committees are expected to raise money for GOP committees this election cycle.
Trump's campaign was nothing more than a fraudulent money-making operation.
This is the list I shared with a friend this week. There are other reasons to be optimistic, but let's keep it simple for now. As this election cycle extends, there will be plenty of opportunities to tweak your list in the coming weeks and months.
Hopium Chronicles' Simon Rosenberg joins Markos to discuss the “red turn” of the economy and how Democrats are preparing for November. There is still work to be done, but we have a better candidate and we have the advantage.
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