We are in the midst of a moon rush. More and more countries and companies are eyeing the lunar surface as they compete for resources and space dominance. So are we ready for a new era of lunar exploration?
This week, an image of the Chinese flag unfurled on the moon was beamed back to Earth. This is the country's fourth landing, and the first ever mission to return samples from the far side of the moon. In the past 12 months, India and Japan have also landed spacecraft on the lunar surface. Last February, US company Intuitive Machines became the first private company to launch a lunar lander, with more projects to come.
Meanwhile, NASA wants to send humans back to the moon with Artemis astronauts, with a goal of landing in 2026. China has said it will send humans to the moon by 2030. And instead of temporary visits, there are plans to build a permanent base.
But in a new era of great power politics, this new space race could export Earth's tensions to the lunar surface.
“Our relationship with the Moon will soon change fundamentally,” warns Justin Holcomb, a geologist at the University of Kansas. The pace of space exploration is now “outpacing our laws,” he says.
According to a 1967 UN convention, no country can own the moon. Instead, the fantastically named Outer Space Treaty says it belongs to everyone and that all exploration must be conducted for the benefit of all humanity and all nations.
It sounds very peaceful and cooperative, and it is. The driving force behind the Outer Space Treaty was Cold War politics, not cooperation.
As tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union rose after World War II, concerns grew that space could become a military battlefield, so a key part of the treaty was that nuclear weapons could not be sent into space. More than 100 countries have joined.
But this new space age looks different from its predecessors.
One major change is that modern lunar missions are not just national projects; companies are also competing.
Last January, a U.S. commercial mission called Peregrine announced it would take human remains, DNA samples and branded sports drinks to the moon. A fuel leak meant it never got there, but it sparked debate about how to deliver on this eclectic list of things that fit the treaty's principle that exploration should benefit all humanity.
“We started sending stuff there because we could. There is no rhyme or reason anymore,” says Michelle Hanlon, a space lawyer and founder of For All Moonkind, an organization seeking to protect Apollo landing sites. “Our moon is close by, and now we are starting to abuse it,” she says.
But even as private enterprise on the Moon increases, the state ultimately remains the key player in all of this. Saeed Mostesar, director of the London Institute for Space Policy and Law, said every company needs state permission to go into space, and this is limited by international treaties.
You can still gain a lot of prestige by joining the elite club of lunar modules. After successful missions, India and Japan could claim to be global space players.
And countries with successful space industries can provide a major boost to their economies through jobs and innovation.
But the Moon Race offers an even greater reward: resources.
Although the lunar terrain may seem somewhat inhospitable, it contains rare earths, metals such as iron and titanium, and minerals including helium, which are used in everything from superconductors to medical equipment.
Estimates of the value of all this vary widely, from billions to trillions. So it's easy to see why some people see the moon as a place where they can make a lot of money. However, it is also important to remember that this will be a very long-term investment, and the technology needed to extract and return these lunar resources is some distance away.
In 1979, an international treaty declared that no country or organization could claim ownership of its resources. But it wasn't popular. Only 17 countries are participating, and that doesn't include the countries that have been to the moon, including the United States.
In fact, the United States passed a law in 2015 allowing citizens and companies to extract, use, and sell space materials.
“This has caused enormous consternation in the international community,” said Michelle Hanlon. “But slowly, others followed similar national laws.” These included Luxembourg, UAE, Japan and India.
The resource most in demand is, surprisingly, water.
“The first shaking of the moon brought by space apollo astronaut Sara Russell, professor of planetary science at the Natural History Museum, explains:
“But about 10 years ago something of a revolution occurred and we discovered that there was almost no trace of water trapped in the phosphate crystals.”
And there's a lot more ice at the moon's poles, she says. Ice is frozen inside the permanently shadowed crater.
Future visitors could use this water for drinking, it could be used to generate oxygen, and astronauts could create rocket fuel by splitting this water into hydrogen and oxygen, allowing them to travel from the Moon to Mars and beyond. You can also use it to:
The United States is now attempting to establish new guiding principles for lunar exploration and lunar exploitation. The so-called Artemis Accords specify that the extraction and use of resources from the Moon must be done in a way that complies with the Outer Space Treaty, but also states that some new rules may be needed.
So far, more than 40 countries have signed these non-binding agreements, but China is conspicuously missing from the list. And some argue that new rules for lunar exploration should not be driven by individual countries.
“This has to be done through the United Nations because it affects all countries,” Sa’id Moshetar said.
However, access to resources can also cause additional conflicts.
There is a lot of space on the Moon, but areas close to ice-filled craters are the main areas of space on the Moon. So what happens if everyone wants the same place as their future base? And once one country establishes a base, how can it prevent other countries from establishing bases too close?
“I think there’s an interesting analogy in Antarctica,” said Jill Stuart, a space policy and law researcher at the London School of Economics. “We will probably see research stations established on the Moon just as they are on the continent.”
But specific decisions about a new lunar base, such as whether it will be a few square kilometers or hundreds of kilometers, may come down to who gets there first.
“There will definitely be a first-mover advantage,” says Jill Stuart.
“So if you can get there first and set up camp, you can calculate the size of the exclusion zone. It doesn’t mean you own the land, but it does mean you can sit in that space.”
The first settlers are now most likely to be the United States or China, bringing new rivalries to already strained relations. And they are likely to set the standard. The rules established by those who get there first may end up being the rules that are maintained over time.
If this all sounds like a stopgap measure, some space experts I spoke with think it's highly unlikely that we'll see another major international space treaty. The dos and don'ts of lunar exploration are more likely to be identified through a memorandum of understanding or a new code of conduct.
There are many risks. The moon is our constant companion. As the moon shines brightly in the sky, you can watch it wax and wane through its various phases.
But as this new space race progresses, we need to start thinking about what kind of place we want it to be, and whether it risks becoming a globally competitive environment.
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