The UK government and industry stakeholders have repeatedly argued that recent changes to the student visa system are strong enough to limit future growth.
The MAC review said: “Evidence suggests that changes to dependency policies have already contributed significantly to the decline in international student recruitment”, highlighting a 63% reduction in the number of course deposits paid for September 2024 intakes as evidence. .
Latest figures released by the Office for National Statistics show net immigration has fallen by 10% since 2022, with student visa applications falling by 25% in September 2024.
But has the government missed the point? And should the industry insist that international students be removed entirely from net migration figures?
Factors limiting demand in the UK were uncertainty, as well as bans on dependents, visas and NHS surcharge increases or benefit thresholds. Now that that has been removed, could the UK sector experience a huge upswing?
This would be ironic given that the government is so focused on the role of international students and graduates in net migration, and that many universities have already been forced to make major cuts due to projected enrollment shortfalls.
The past 18 months have been dominated by politics with the UK's higher education system, with the government repeatedly cutting and changing prime ministers, cabinets and policies.
Meanwhile, leading industry figures such as Lord Bilimoria, chancellor of the University of Birmingham, have campaigned tirelessly to recognize the value of post-study access to the labor market.
afternoon @Rishi Sunak, we advise you not to change your graduate visa. International students must maintain a two-year post-graduation work visa. Changing this would cause great harm to our precious British universities.@UKCISA @UUKIntl @APPGIS @Russell Group @10 Downing Street pic.twitter.com/fIt4NJ5uh3
— Lord Karan Bilimoria (@Lord_Bilimoria) May 9, 2024
International students have been watching and waiting amidst such uncertainty, unable or unwilling to invest in the UK. They were biding their time. They may not have wanted explicit access to the UK labor market, but they looked for assurances that this would be possible and that they would be able to recoup their significant investments in UK education, accommodation and living expenses.
Home Secretary James Cleverly first mentioned a review of postgraduate pathways in the House of Commons in early December 2023, almost four months before setting out specific terms of reference for the MAC.
News that the right to work after study has been protected will now spread around the world with a clear message that the UK is open for business.
As a result, the submission conversion rate in January plummeted.
One of the largest declines occurred in Nigeria, the largest source of dependent visa applications. The government was quick to point out that the ban on dependents was clearly ‘in the interest of British citizens’.
But it made no mention of the long-term collapse of the naira or Britain's cost-of-living crisis over the same period.
The true impact of the dependent policy changes will only be known once the UK becomes affordable again for Nigerians. Many of them are currently struggling to pay tuition or deposits.
The Home Office has said graduate pathways will remain “under review”, but it is clear they will not change before the upcoming election or the early stages of a new government. Prospective students can rest assured once again.
News that the right to work after study has been protected will now be amplified around the world, with a clear message that the UK is open for business.
But the same cannot be said about its British competitors.
Canada immediately introduced a two-year cap on international study permits, curbing the number of study permits approved nationwide to about 360,000 per year. This represents a 35% decrease in the 2023 approval rate.
Australia is conducting its own national higher education and immigration review, which is imposing more stringent restrictions on student movement into Australia. The government has been quoted as saying it aims to reduce net migration of students and temporary workers to 250,000 by 2024-25 (down significantly from 548,000 in September 2023).
This could equate to more than 300,000 international students who would normally choose Australia or Canada now looking for an alternative study destination as early as September 2024. The US and UK could be the leaders.
The UK could be set for Indian Summer.
If changes in demand are inevitable during the pandemic, with Australia closing its borders while the UK remains open, the news that UK postgraduate pathways will be “maintained” could be rocket fuel for international student recruitment in the coming months.