Abbreviated expert roundup A long-running series published every morning, collecting essential political debate and analysis surrounding the Internet.
Mark Jacob/”Stop the Presses” from Substack:
Why headlines matter and why news outlets fail at them.
Out of laziness or fear, some media think small over big type.
David Pecker, the first witness in Donald Trump's first criminal trial, described his top priorities when running the National Enquirer:
“The only thing that matters is the magazine cover.”
This means the most eye-catching headlines and photos.
Pecker understands the importance of headlines. So does Donald Trump. That's why Trump arranged for Pecker's sticky rag to write headlines like this during the 2016 election campaign:
“The five secret mistresses of the cruise!”
(Includes the subheading “Perverted TED is now over.”)
and
“Hillary: 6 months left!”
The vague claims behind the headline didn't matter. Headlines mattered.
Josh Marshall/point notes:
New York judge threatens jail time for contempt of Trump attack on witness
Merchan said: Bespeak On Tuesday morning, President Trump announced that he would face “jail punishment” if he continues to violate the judge's order.
The threats came as Merchan held Trump in contempt of court and fined him $1,000 per statement for nine social media posts that attacked witnesses in the case.
The fines total $9,000 for posts, including one attacking Michael Cohen and supporting statements by Fox News host Jesse Watters claiming the jury in the case was biased.
Merchan noted that the contempt order leaves open the possibility of sending Trump to prison for continued violations of the order. New York state law limits Trump to a $1,000 fine per violation. Such a small monetary amount, Merchan wrote, “is unlikely to produce the desired results when those responsible can easily afford such fines.”
Bill Shea/Washington Monthly:
Biden's clearest path to the Electoral College
The president is running stronger in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
While we're all there washington monthly Try to protect ourselves. Mad Fall diseaseI still regularly look at the general election poll numbers to see if there are any interesting developments.
And I think we're seeing some of that taking shape over the last few weeks.
first:
Joe Biden's surest path to 270 Electoral College votes is to win the Rust Belt swing states. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (including the city of Omaha).
Add that to the safe blue states and you get a 270-268 Biden win.
Yes, some Republicans in Nebraska are pushing to end the practice of awarding Electoral College votes by district, preventing Biden from winning NE-02 a second time.
However, if that happens, Maine grants electoral college votes to each district; donald trump A clear win in the rural ME-02. They'll probably do the same and it'll be an electoral college wash.
second:
Test fever data for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin roughly tracks national test fever data.
It's the job of a campaign to inform voters about what the incumbent has done. And they will.
Sahil Kapoor/NBC:
Trump said Republicans have always wanted to leave abortion law up to the states. That's false.
Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, have consistently pushed for national restrictions on abortion. The 2024 elections could give them a chance
donald trump will play down Nationwide abortion restrictions are expected, as Republicans falsely say they have long sought to leave abortion law up to the states.
“Bringing this issue back to the United States under states’ rights and the 10th Amendment has been the policy of Republicans and Conservatives for more than 50 years, and has been made possible thanks to the judges I was proud to nominate and confirm.” Trump wrote On social media. It was one of many posts and statements he made amid nationwide backlash against the Supreme Court ruling he announced would end federal abortion rights in 2022. Unpopular Alabama Court Decision That embryo is a child.
Trump's latest claims have been debunked by his party's long history of fighting to restrict abortion nationwide.
Well, liars lie. And that's another campaign ad.
“The Message Box” by Dan Pfeiffer/SubStack:
Voters Most Likely to Abandon Trump
New poll shows fragility of Trump coalition
The third week of Donald Trump's Manhattan trial is set to begin. Legal experts who understand the ins and outs of Trump's various trials believe that David Pecker's testimony is as follows. National Enquirer The publisher was very damaging to Trump's weak defense of his obvious crimes. Since I never went to law school (and you don't subscribe to this newsletter for legal analysis), I focus on the politics of the trial. There are questions about what a photo of Trump at the defense table will do to his public image, whether the revelations are turning off persuasive voters, and the cost of being stuck in court instead of campaigning in battlegrounds. And, of course, there is the ultimate question of how a conviction will affect the election. Until the end, CNN Release vote Late last week provided some very interesting details about voters who may abandon Trump if he is convicted. The results are very interesting and provide optimism for Democrats even if Trump is acquitted.
Andrew Egger/Boruk:
Mike Johnson Bear Hug by Hakeem Jeffries
[Rep. Marjorie Taylor] Greene went berserk, as expected. “Every day I fight for the Democratic agenda and the America First Republican agenda that are destroying America.” tweeted. “Mike Johnson is officially the Democratic Speaker of the House. Below is the official endorsement for his speakership. “What kind of dirty backroom deals did Johnson make to support the Democratic Party?”
She went on to call on Johnson to resign and insisted she would still force a (now doomed) vote to take the gavel from him. We will give them the opportunity to do it. . . Americans deserve a full view of Uniparty.”
Democrats would be doing the right thing if they protected Johnson from an all-out attack by Greene. But the strange thing is that there are all signs that Johnson is already ahead of Green. Even among Republicans.
Brian Beutler/”Off Message” from Substack:
Are the Democrats (finally) breaking with the mainstream media?
Years of frustration were beginning to boil over, but with few alternative journalism institutions, Democrats turned instead to celebrity interviewers.I want to expand on remarks President Biden made at the White House Correspondents' Dinner on Saturday. This represents a departure from the usual tone of the event, for obvious reasons.
[T]The most pressing question of our time is whether democracy remains America's sacred cause. This is the question Americans must answer this year. And as free journalists, you have an important role to play in: Ensuring the American people have the information they need to make informed decisions.
The defeated former president made no secret of his assault on our democracy. He said he wanted to be a “dictator on day one” and more.
He tells his supporters that he is their 'vengeance' and 'retaliation'. In God's name have you ever heard another president say something like that? And he promised a 'bloodbath' if he lost again. We must take this seriously.
Eight years ago, this could have been dismissed as just Trump talk. But not anymore. Not after January 6th.
I am truly not asking you to take sides, but to accept the seriousness of the moment. Look past the horse racing numbers and miscellaneous moments, distractions and sideshows that dominate and sensationalize our politics.; Focus on what’s really at stake… We all have an important role to play in ensuring that our democracy endures: American democracy. I have my part to play, but with all due respect, so do you.
Emphasis added. The punch line was not omitted.
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From Cliff Schecter: