in the lead
● housing: House Majority PAC, the Democratic Party's top super PAC, Just announced that it's booked Fall TV hours are worth $146 million. Full general election expenses They will be merged in 2022. Similar initial cost Last cycle totaled $86 million. and $51 million in 2018.
The move makes HMP the first of the “Big Four” groups to spend heavily on House races to announce advertising reservations this year. But it's only a matter of time before HMP's allies on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the official campaign arm of the Democratic Party, take similar action. The Democrats' Republican rivals, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund, are themselves. sometimes rivals—And you won't be far behind either.
As is often the case, HMP broke down its doubts by media market rather than congressional district. This is because television advertising can only be booked on a market-by-market basis. However, because the areas served by specific TV stations vary, Hardly aligned with political boundaries (and vice versa) Many of these reservations can apply to multiple races.
Fortunately, we can fill in the blanks in the following way: Previously published guides It shows which regions are in which media markets. We used it. compile a spreadsheet This represents the 50 markets HMP plans to participate in or the regions it hopes to defend or transform.
Some of these are for sure. The only competitive seat that holds a significant portion of Portland, Maine's media market is Maine's second red power, held by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. But Portland, oregon, encompassing all of 6th Avenue in Oregon as well as most of 5th Oregon and 3rd Washington Avenue. So we've listed all three of these seats (two Democratic seats and one pick-up opportunity in the 5th District) in that row.
In these multi-district markets, we won't know which races will benefit until the spending actually occurs, which may not be until late summer at the latest. HMP (or a similarly situated organization) could wait to decide how to allocate funds based on how it thinks individual contests are going. And just like restaurant reservations, TV reservations can be canceled entirely. It often happens that a PAC or party committee either gives up on a race or feels extremely confident.
As the rest of the “big four” join in, we will continue to update our spreadsheet tracking house advertising bookings throughout the year. So bookmark it today.
1st quarter fundraising
- NM-sen: martin heinrich (D-inc): $1.5 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand; In Domenici (R): $750,000 raised (plus $500,000 of own funds)
- NV-sen: Jackie Rosen (D-inc): $5 million raised, $13.2 million in cash on hand
- AZ-01: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): $750,000 raised, $2.45 million in cash on hand
- NH-01: chris papas (D-inc): $625,000 raised, $1.75 million in cash on hand
- NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D-inc): $1.4 million raised, $18 million in cash on hand
- WI-03: Rebecca Cook (D): $490,000 raised
senate
● MT-Sen: In response to long investigative report Liz Goodwin for the Washington Post Former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy says he was shot in the arm at a national park in 2015 to cover up the fact that he had not reported a gunshot wound he received in Afghanistan three years earlier claimed to have made it up. A friendly fire incident may occur.
Sheehy, the Republican frontrunner to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, suffered injuries after a trip to Glacier National Park with his family and went to the hospital for treatment. His revolver exploded after being dropped.
But Goodwin's piece raises many questions about Sheehy's claims. In particular, a military policy expert she consulted said, “It is highly unlikely that a civilian hospital would report a years-old gunshot wound to the Navy,” adding, “There would be little reason to worry that Sheehy might trigger an investigation.” He explained his old injury to hospital staff.
Additionally, a firearms expert told Goodwin that it would have been “very unlikely” that Sheehy's gun had fallen and discharged. The full article explores many other inconsistencies in Sheehy's story and is worth a read.
pasha
● ND government: North Dakota Republican unanimously approved Rep. Kelly Armstrong will join Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller, the only major candidate, to succeed outgoing Gov. Doug Burgum at a weekend convention. The procedure was skipped as planned.. But Miller said he has Burgum's support and plans to focus on winning the June 11 Republican primary.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party Unite behind State Senator Merrill Piepkorn At their meeting held at the same time. Piepkorn also famous for his career As a country singer and radio host.He is the only candidate seeking his party's nomination.
● New Jersey State Government: Former Republican Sen. Ed Durr, who toppled one of the state Senate's most powerful Democrats in a major upset in 2021, lost his seat two years later, he tells the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein. He doesn't rule out a bid for governor next year. Durr, an unknown truck driver with an unknown campaign, shocked New Jersey politics by ousting Senate President Steve Sweeney. By a 52-48 marginBut Democratic Representative John Burzichelli said: They loosed him 53-47. Last fall.
house
● CO-03: Two Republicans hoping to succeed Rep. Lauren Boebert in Colorado's 3rd District secured location Others could join in the June 25 primary vote after garnering enough support at a local party meeting held on Friday.
Candidates can appear on the ballot in one of three ways. You can try to qualify at your party's convention. In this case, the votes of at least 30% of the delegates must be obtained. You can submit 1,500 voter signatures. Alternatively, you can go the hybrid route, requiring you to win at least 10% of the delegate vote and submit signatures. Anyone who chooses the third option but does not reach 10% will not be able to advance to the primary, regardless of the number of signatures.
Two candidates who avoided the signature-gathering process got through door one. State Board of Education member Stephen Varela topped the polls with 34% of delegates, followed by former state Rep. Ron Hanks with 32%. Meanwhile, a third candidate, financial advisor Russ Andrews, got 18%, so his signature is needed to get it past the election administrator's censorship.
Three minor candidates who took the convention-only route ended their campaigns on Friday, and at least four hopefuls, including attorney Jeff Hurd, are relying solely on signatures. Meanwhile, Democrats plan to nominate former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, who was the party's nominee against Boebert in 2022 and is the only Democratic candidate this year.
●FL-13: new survey Pete Polls finds Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan holding a commanding 64-13 lead over private school founder Eddie Speir, who is challenging him in the Aug. 20 Republican primary. While Speir has raised at least $500,000 of his own money, Buchanan is one of the wealthiest members of Congress with a reported net worth. More than 100 million dollars As of 2020.
●FL-15: Two Florida Republicans running for other offices Donald Trump's call was heeded He is challenging freshman Rep. Laurel Lee in the 15th Congressional District, a Tampa-area seat that supported Trump. By a narrow 51-48 margin. In 2020.
Businessman James Judge has been competing against Republican Rep. Gus Bilirakis in the nearby 15th District just to the north, but is now taking aim at Lee Myung-bak. Who Incurred Trump's Anger He initially supported Governor Ron DeSantis' presidential bid. Last cycle, Judge faced Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in the blue 14th District. But we lost 57-43..
Meanwhile, Navy veteran Brian Perras I took all 4%. He stopped campaigning for Pasco County's supervisor of elections against Bilirakis in last cycle's primary and was also stacked against Lee. (In 2020, Ferrars ran for California Congress It was terrible.) Several other Republicans, including: Two infamous far-right trollsHillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp is also considering a bid. I recently took the plunge. For the Democratic Party.
● NC-13: Donald Trump approved Former federal prosecutor Brad Knott won against wealthy lawyer Kelly Daughtry in the May 14 Republican primary runoff election for North Carolina's 13th District. Daughtry led Knott 27-19. The first round of voting last month fell short of the 30% of votes needed to avoid a runoff.
●ND-AL: North Dakota Republican National Convention I messed up on saturday Supporters of former state representative Rick Becker, who was disqualified from his party's endorsement, nevertheless put his name on the ballot, preventing another candidate from winning the majority he needed.
Becker was barred from participating in the endorsement process because he is running against Republican Senator Jon Hoeven in 2022. Received 18% of the votes As an independent. But despite this, about 380 Becker supporters voted overrides on his behalf, depriving him of the support of Public Service Director Julie Fedorchak, despite former State Department official Alex Balazs' 44-29 vote. . in the first round of voting.
Some disgruntled Becker fans seemed to go for Balazs in the second round, which saw him beat Fedorchak 49.7 to 49.2. This time there were 13 incorrect ballots, but it was enough to prevent the party from supporting Balazs. This led Fedorchak to withdraw from consideration and hand the award over to Balazs. (Fedorchak Endorsed by Hoeven In preparation for the competition.)
But all three contenders will face off again in the June 11 primary to replace Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who is running for governor. The winner will face Trygve Hammer, a Marine Corps vet who is the only declared Democrat. And it won the support of the party. A weekend without drama.
● TN-05: Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston has officially begun She filed her challenge to Assemblyman Andy Ogles on Friday afternoon, a day after the state's nomination filing deadline. Johnston had previously expressed interest in a possible bid but submitted no paperwork. Without fanfare.
In a statement kicking off her campaign, she called Ogles “a completely incompetent politician who gets nothing done.” In the attached video, in which she accused the incumbent of being “embroiled in scandal.” This is likely a reference to a report by a local journalist. Ogles Exposure He was accused of fabricating much of his personal biography, including claims that he tracked down international sex offenders.
● WI-08: Donald Trump on Sunday Tony Wied Pre-Approvedformer owner of a chain of dinosaur-themed gas stations; Make Weed Tweet He said he would launch a bid for Wisconsin's open 8th Congressional District on Monday evening. Another potential candidate, political consultant Alex Bruesewitz, also gave his support He told Wied that he would join the campaign as an “unofficial advisor.”
erase further recommended Former state Sen. Roger Roth withdrew from the Republican primary, calling him a “RINO” and a “Paul Ryan 'clone.'” Ross responded. “He will help us win this race and win Wisconsin for Donald Trump this November.” State Sen. Andre Jacque is also seeking Republican support.
● WI-01: Former House Speaker Mike Sheridan said Monday: I am considering pursuing Democratic candidate running against Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District. Sheridan was elected chair in 2009. But he lost re-election The following year, on the same night, great chaos cost the Democrats their majority. He attempted his comeback in 2014 by running for state Senate, but was unsuccessful. But I finished in 3rd place In the Democratic primary.
Sheridan acknowledged to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Lawrence Andrea that the primary against another former congressman, Peter Barca, would be “challenging.” Barca are also weighing a bid and told the Journal Sentinel that the DCCC has been “encouraging them for months” for him to enter the race.