ALBANY, N.Y. — Two and a half minutes into the third quarter of Friday's Sweet 16 game, South Carolina appeared to be heading into another women's NCAA Tournament. The Gamecocks held a 22-point lead on an Indiana team that seemed to be barely holding on.
But the Hoosiers had plenty left. They rallied and gave South Carolina a similar scare that Tennessee gave the Gamecocks in the SEC Tournament semifinals when the Lady Vols erased a 23-point deficit.
Indiana outscored South Carolina by 13 points in the second half and cut the deficit to two points with 1:08 remaining in the game. Raven Johnson hit a 3-pointer and a free throw in the final minute, which was enough for the Gamecocks to win 79-75, remain undefeated and advance to the Elite Eight for the fourth straight year.
But has the disappearance of another key lead left more questions than answers for the Gamecocks?
Andrea Adelson, Charlie Creme and Michael Voepel examine what the future holds now for No. 1 overall seed South Carolina.
South Carolina kept pushing forward, but the game wasn't decided until the final minute. What vulnerabilities did Indiana help expose on Friday?
Adelson: In her postgame comments, South Carolina coach Dawn Staley noted that her team is still relatively young, which sometimes leads to unwise decisions. And some of those decisions helped Indiana get back into the game. Staley said players started taking bad shots. Instead of continuing to feed the ball inside to Kamilla Cardoso, who could kick out to set up a better shot, players were consistently firing long jumpers that missed. “When we get the lead, they think any shot is a good shot,” Staley said. “We took some bad shots that led to easy buckets for them.”
cream: The biggest thing is that this South Carolina team doesn't have the same finishing skills as most of Staley's best teams, primarily on defense. This version of the Gamecocks may be more skilled than last year's team, but they won't break them down in the same way. Opponents now know that even South Carolina's big leads can be overcome if they stick to their game plan like Indiana did to get good looks from 3-point shooters, an area where South Carolina has shown it can lose focus.
Boople: When the game ended, the ball was credited to Indiana, a veteran team that didn't fold. Guard Sydney Parrish said the Hoosiers' strategy was to take some risks both offensively and defensively, and in the second half, those decisions paid off more often than not.
As Andrea and Charlie said, we've seen some differences between this year's Gamecocks and last year's Gamecocks in that they have rarely allowed leads of 20 or more points in both the SEC and NCAA tournaments. Last season, the Gamecocks lost in the Final Four, but in that game Iowa trailed South Carolina all night. Two near losses this year came when the Gamecocks failed to finish off foes, with Staley hammering home the hammer before facing Oregon State.
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Raven Johnson's South Carolina Big 3 earned a narrow win over Indiana.
Raven Johnson hit a 3-pointer to give South Carolina five more points over Indiana.
Is it time for South Carolina to worry?
Boople: There is cause for concern. Oregon State is a stout defensive team, and the Beavers have made 264 3-pointers this season, almost as many as Indiana (268). And we saw what the Hoosiers almost did on Friday thanks to a 3-pointer.
That said, perhaps this was the Gamecocks' “fear” for the tournament and they'll have an even stronger performance going forward.
“Offensively, I think we got a little stuck and didn’t get the flow of things,” Bree Hall said of the Gamecocks’ second-half struggles. “But we will take note and change a few things.
“Obviously, I don't like those close games, but I think it's an advantage just to be able to execute when the pressure is on. I think you can look back on this game and see, we were able to execute and defend. That was one of the key elements of that game. It was.”
cream: South Carolina is fine. Staley certainly has some things to strengthen. For one, Cardoso, who scored 22 points on 10-for-12 shooting, is placing more emphasis on getting the ball on offense. While there may be a bit more defensive discipline in the shooting game, the Gamecocks' status as the biggest favorite to win the tournament remains intact.
Adelson: Indiana presents a challenge that future opponents will not: the ability to shoot from anywhere. The Hoosiers have always been a tough opponent as they are the best field goal shooting team and 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the country. When they started hitting those 3s, they were able to make up a big deficit. Oregon State will provide a challenge inside, but you can be sure Staley will have his players step up their 3-point D.
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South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Indiana Hoosiers – Game Highlights
Watch highlights from the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks and Indiana Hoosiers
What can Oregon State and future South Carolina opponents take away from Indiana's performance?
Adelson: Indiana forward Mackenzie Holmes later said the Hoosiers watched the way Tennessee played against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament semifinals and knew they could come back from a big deficit. As Charlie mentioned earlier, the inability to shut down is something South Carolina still has to learn. But part of that conversation is not being scared when the other person falls behind. Especially at this stage when every team has a reason to leave.
Boople: As efficient and effective as the Cardoso was, it didn't really shoot well enough. When someone is that unstoppable, you just keep hitting them with the ball. Opponents will try to force South Carolina to get fewer touches on the 6-foot-7 Cardoso, which will be a difficult task. But if they can do it, the pressure gets on the Gamecocks guards, who, while very good, took a few shots they shouldn't have had on Friday.
South Carolina is still the frontrunner, but does Friday's close decision make a Gamecocks title feel less inevitable?
cream: Perhaps there is some light on South Carolina's national title rise, but the Gamecocks are still the favorite. Their depth remains a huge advantage. Even in Friday's close calls, Staley had more options to rely on and he also had the ability to go with the players he was most comfortable with. She could go with Te-Hina Paopao or Raven Johnson on the Cardoso wing of the court. She would have Ashlyn Watkins or Chloe Kitts next to Cardoso to defend inside. Against Indiana, Staley decided to go with Tessa Johnson to guard the Hoosiers' shooters. She also has MiLaysia Fulwiley as an option. Almost every other coach in this tournament doesn't have that option in a crisis.
Adelson: I think going back to last season, South Carolina was undefeated at this stage and it felt like it was inevitable that the Gamecocks would repeat as national champions. Until it doesn't. But the key difference is that it has been tested repeatedly this season. Before Indiana, it was Tennessee. Next up was LSU in the SEC title game. This has happened three times in the last five games when South Carolina has had to find a way to win a close game in the fourth quarter.
Regardless, I think South Carolina is still the frontrunner because of its overall talent and depth. But if Iowa, for example, shoots 13 3-pointers like Indiana… and the inevitable rematch comes, why wouldn't the Hawkeyes have a chance?
Boople: The funny thing is, a South Carolina national championship actually seemed a lot more inevitable last season. Until the buzzer sounded on the loss to Iowa, it still felt like South Carolina was on track to win. That team was so experienced and talented that it seemed like they couldn't lose until that actually happened.
This is a better shooting team, but as we've made clear, these Gamecocks have been more tested. Would that make them less vulnerable to being upset, or more so? There is no doubt that they remain a clear favorite, especially due to the high quality of depth that Charlie mentioned. But that's not quite the same as being invincible, which is part of what Staley will try to convey without damaging his team's confidence.