The 2024 legislative session continues to falter like Season 1, lethargic and unfocused.
Then, let’s pay attention to the 2024 primary election, which is only 61 days away.
There's a lot to preview and process. Republicans held primaries in 57 of Idaho's 105 legislative seats. (Anyway, let's set aside the Democratic Party's remarkable progress in recruiting candidates for now. The Democratic Party has fielded candidates in 81 primaries, a significant increase from 45 primaries two years ago, and has four contested primaries of its own.)
First things first: the basics.
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Expect another statewide battle between Republican hardliners and mainstream forces. Don't necessarily expect a knockout. In 2022, hardliners gained ground in North Idaho and mainstreamers gained ground in Eastern Idaho. Some disruption is expected, but perhaps not on the scale that occurred two years ago when as many as 20 sitting lawmakers lost their lives in one night.
Let's break down the 57 GOP primaries into a more manageable list. Here are 12 races you should watch and another 12 you probably should watch.
A must-see primary election
Senate, District 1: Senator Scott Herndon (incumbent); Jim Woodward. Fight your way to the top of the list at the top of the map in a grudge match in Idaho's northernmost region. Sagle's Herndon delivered a major victory for hardliners in 2022, ousting the moderate Woodward and taking a seat on the Joint Finance and Appropriations Committee and the Senate Education Committee. This could be the costliest race on the May ballot. Herndon has already raised nearly $79,000. Woodward raised nearly $86,000 and lent an additional $20,000 to the campaign.
Senate, District 6: Senate. Dan Foreman (incumbent); Robert Blair. Another rematch. Kendrick Blair, a Republican, was a prospective senator in 2022. Foreman, a hardline conservative from Viola, ousted Blair in the primary. This was Foreman's first step toward returning to the Legislature in 2017 and 2018.
House Seat A, District 6: Representative Lori McCann (incumbent); Colton Bennett; David Dalby. McCann, vice chair of the House Education Committee, opposed legislation targeting access to “harmful” library materials. Last session, she pushed unsuccessfully for a bill to install feminine hygiene product dispensers in girls' restrooms at schools. She is also a supporter of Idaho Launch and a member of the state Workforce Development Board, which implements the controversial student incentive program. It is no surprise that she has drawn her main opposition to the right.
Senate, District 8: Senate. Jeff Schroeder (incumbent); Christy Zito. A full-scale clash of ideologies broke out in a wide area encompassing Boise, Custer, Elmore and Valley counties. Schroeder, of Mountain Home, tried unsuccessfully to pass a library bill compromise through the Senate. Hammett's Zito is a former congressman who remains loyal to the hard-line Republican Party.
Senate, District 10: Senator Tammy Nichols (incumbent); Laurie Bishop. Nichols, of Middleton, is another hardliner on Senate education. She pushed an ambitious education savings account bill through committee last year, but it failed in the Senate. Bishop, also from Middleton, raised more than $56,000 for her primary, including $25,000 in loans from her own campaign.
House Seat A, District 11: Representative Julie Yamamoto (incumbent); Nicole Hyland; Kent Marmon. Rep. Yamamoto, from Caldwell, chairs the House Education Committee. Unlike the Senate, the House Education Committee chair has opposed proposals to fund private education tied to school choice. Will two conservative challengers, including Highland, who ran unsuccessfully for the Caldwell School Board in 2023, split the hard-line vote and work in Yamamoto's favor?
Senate, District 13: Senator Brian Lenney (incumbent); Jeff Agenbrod. Another rematch. Lenney, of Nampa, ousted Agenbroad in 2022 and has aligned himself with hardliners in the Senate and Senate Education. Agenbroad's bid to return to the Senate was largely funded by industry and mainstream GOP donors, including Yamamoto.
Senate, District 20: Senator Chuck Winder (incumbent); Joshua Kaiser. The race featured a top-12 finish thanks to Winder of Boise. As president pro tempore of the Senate, he is the highest-ranking member of the Republican leadership. Before the 2024 session, he publicly rebuked several conservatives within his caucus, a move that could inflame the ire of hard-core primary voters with long memories.
House Seat B, District 31: Representative Rod Furniss (incumbent); Carrie Hanks. Rigby's Furniss took on a public role in a variety of educational debates. lowering the two-thirds supermajority threshold for school bonds; improving health benefits for K-12 employees; Install feminine hygiene product dispensers in restrooms. Hanks, from St. Anthony, is a hardliner who wants to return to the House. This race is also worth watching because eastern Idaho legislative seats have tended to change hands in past cycles. Incumbency does not guarantee success.
House Seat A, District 32: Assemblywoman Stephanie Mickelsen (incumbent); Sean Calvert Crystal; kelly golden. There is no more stark example of the internal conflict within the Republican Party. The Republican Central Committee issued a resolution “prohibiting” Mickelson from identifying himself as a Republican, the East Idaho News reported. Mickelson said he's not going anywhere. She won't be running alone in May.
House Seat B, District 32: Representative Wendy Horman (incumbent); Sean Colletti; Brian Smith. No lawmaker has more control over where education money goes than Horman of Idaho Falls. For many years, JFAC co-chairs have played a central role in crafting the K-12 budget bill. She is also one of the most ardent school choice advocates in the state legislature. However, Horman will be facing two well-known opponents. Coletti serves as mayor of Ammon. Smith is a member of the Republican National Committee and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Idaho Freedom Foundation. He twice challenged U.S. Representative Mike Simpson and lost both times.
House Seat B, District 35: Representative Joshua Wheeler (incumbent); Brett Skidmore. In 2022, Wheeler raised nearly $91,000 in preparation for a primary victory over then-Rep. Chad Christensen. Wheeler is now involved in another big primary. Although he raised close to $34,000, Skidmore received more than $69,000 in campaign loans and donations, primarily from hard-line backers like former Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin.
Other primaries to watch
House Seat A, District 8: Representative Matthew Bundy (incumbent); Rob Weisswenger. Bundy, a Mountain Home teacher, sits at JFAC.
House Seat B, District 8: Representative Megan Blanksma (incumbent); Fay Thompson. Hammett's Blanksma is a major sponsor of Launch. She was removed from her position as House majority leader in February.
Senate, District 9: Brandon Shippy; Scott resigns. It's an expensive primary to succeed retiring Sen. Abby Lee (R-Fruitland). Syme served in the House of Representatives from 2017 to 2022.
House Seat A, District 9: Representative Jacyn Gallagher (incumbent); John Shirt. Weiser's Gallagher flipped the House seat to hardliners in 2022.
House Seat B, District 13: Representative Kenny Wroten (incumbent); Amy Henry; Stephen Tanner. Wroten, of Nampa, cast one of the swing votes in the House Ways and Means and Taxation Committee this session, helping block a $50 million private school tax credit bill.
Senate, District 21: Senator Treg Bernt (incumbent); Brenda Vaughn. Bernt, of Meridian, led the session on a bill that would ban campus diversity declarations.
House Seat A, District 23: Representative Melissa Durrant (incumbent); Chris Bruce. Durrant, of Kuna, was another pastor and tax change voter who opposed the private school tax credit bill.
House Seat B, District 23: Representative Tina Lambert (incumbent); Sean Dygert. Caldwell's Lambert aligns with the hardliners at JFAC.
Senate, District 24: Senate. Glenneda Zuiderveld (incumbent); Alex Cabal. Zuiderveld of Twin Falls was another hardline pickup in the 2022 primary.
House Seat B, District 28: Representative Richard Cheatum (incumbent); James Floyd Lambourne; Mike Saville. Cheatum, of Pocatello, voted against the private school tax credit bill in Rev and Tax.
House Seat B, District 30: Representative Julianne Young (incumbent); Ben Furyman. Young, of Blackfoot, is a prolific bill writer who focuses primarily on conservative social issues.
Senate, District 33: Senator Dave Lent (incumbent); Brian Scholtz. Lent, of Idaho Falls, serves as Senate Education Chairman and often clashes with hardliners on his committee.
24 primary elections. This is a decent list of starting races to watch when Congress finally wraps up.
Kevin Richert writes weekly analysis of education policy and education politics. Look for his story every Thursday.