What happens if the East Coast shipping port is flooded and fishing is impossible? The nation's supply chain relies on these ports, transporting trillions of dollars worth of goods each year.
While experts predict the average sea level rise Two feet of flooding by 2100 is a reality most port and coastal communities will have to contend with. Now a new climate study shows that some areas of the coast are likely to change even faster.
This study from the United States Geological Survey used data from geographic and satellite observations to show how the northeast coast of the United States will change in the next 10 years.
A CBS News analysis of USGS data found that more than 67,000 people along the East Coast live in environmentally exposed communities. sea level riseHurricanes and other hazards that could permanently change or erode coastal landscapes over the next decade.
Some of the buildings in the area are over 100 years old and include homes, businesses, and places of worship. Altered coastlines can damage homes, roads and other facilities and make communities potentially uninhabitable.
The analysis identified more than 45 ports whose coastlines could be permanently altered. Risks such as rising sea levels There is also erosion that could disrupt operations or close them for several days.
A closer look at coastal impacts
The USGS has previously published coastal climate change projections, but in a change from previous iterations, it also included data on the physical composition of the coast, such as whether the surface is sandy, rocky, or anchored by leaves. These characteristics, along with climate, help determine how susceptible an area is to erosion or flooding.
“We’re sandwiching all of this together and doing it through machine learning,” said Erika Lentz, USGS research geologist.
The result is a highly detailed map that can predict how the coast will change. The National Park Service plans to use this data to create resilience projects for many of the buildings and attractions they manage. North Carolina's Cape Hatteras Lighthouse has been threatened by erosion since the 1930s. Cape Cod's visitor center has already suffered damage from flooding from storms and hurricanes.
This data can be used by other agencies, such as port authorities, to focus climate resilience projects in vulnerable areas.
In addition to the more than 67,000 people at risk of displacement along the east coast, changing coastal conditions are threatening dozens of ports along the busy northeast coast.
The American Association of Port Authorities estimates that 15,000 jobs are created for every $1 billion exported through U.S. ports.
The analysis found that Boston Harbor is one of the most vulnerable areas. It is one of the oldest ports in the country and supports more than 66,000 jobs.
Mapping Changes Along the Boston Coast
Ports are often an integral part of communities and local ways of life. Many smaller ports are less important to the national supply chain but can still support people and businesses across multiple states.
“Some ports, like Providence, may be slightly less valuable on a national or global scale, but they are very valuable on a regional scale,” said Austin Becker, a professor at the University of Rhode Island.
Becker chairs the Marine Affairs Coastal Resilience Lab, which studies risks and issues. weather change Brings coastal trade. He said most of Rhode Island's petroleum products come through the Port of Providence.
“This has left the region heavily dependent on the port for fuel and oil to heat homes in the winter,” Becker said.
Nationwide, millions of jobs (estimated at 31 million by the National Association of Port Authorities) are directly or indirectly supported by ports, including jobs in warehouses, cruise terminals, and seafood processing centers. But even if ports can maintain coastal integrity, rising sea levels make them more vulnerable to flooding.
CBS analyzed data on 'high tide flooding' from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This is a new term NOAA is using to describe the following phenomena: flooding that occurs Even if there are no hurricanes or storms.
In 2022, Boston Harbor experienced 14 days of high tide flooding.
“What NOAA calls 'high tide flooding' is an increase in the frequency of minor flooding events. Clear day conditions – there's water in the streets. It's not necessarily damaging or destructive, but it's disruptive to the community,” said William Sweet. said: NOAA oceanographer.
According to NOAA data, the number of flood days could triple by 2050, with Boston Harbor and surrounding communities experiencing up to 50 high-tide flood days each year. Destructive flooding that lasted nearly two months.
There are similar high tide flooding prospects above and below ports along the Atlantic coast. The Port of Baltimore and surrounding areas are projected to be flooded for 65 days per year by 2050, up from 3 last year, while the Ports of New York and New Jersey could see their number of sunny flood days increase from 13 to 60 by 2022. .
According to a recent study, it would cost between $19.5 billion and $26.6 billion just to raise East Coast ports by six feet to accommodate future sea level rise and flooding.
The Biden administration announced a federal grant program in November to fund capital improvement projects at some shipping terminals. To date, 10 East Coast ports have received grants from the program.
“I think a lot of ports aren’t taking the necessary steps because they don’t really know how to adapt.” said Regina Asariotis, head of policy and legislation at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
If ports make climate resilience part of every decision, they can make progress by strengthening certain parts of their infrastructure and leaving others intact, she said. Vulnerable components, such as fuel storage or electrical facilities, can be raised or relocated further inland.
Interactive map of port cities at risk
Hover over port areas (pink) to see how many areas are at risk according to the latest USGS data.
Becker, a University of Rhode Island professor, said the communities and governments around the ports should bear some responsibility.
“The ports themselves are not always in a position to make the necessary investments,” he said. “It’s really important that we actually recognize that as a society we are sort of a separate society and the risks of these impacts on ports are distributed across a fairly wide range of society.”