Your favorite wine may soon be gone. From Europe to Southern California, some of the world's traditional wine regions are at risk of disappearing almost completely within decades, researchers say. weather change.
As humanity continues to burn fossil fuels, the Earth getting warmer. And rising temperatures, affecting everything from the water cycle to where people can safely live, are fueling more extreme weather. In a new literature review published Tuesday in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, scientists found impacts of climate change in coastal and low-lying areas of Spain, Italy, Greece and Southern California. The world's most traditional wine producer — It's important.
By the end of the century (just 76 years old), they found that about 90% of these specific areas “may be at risk of disappearing.” In particular, they found that excessive droughts and more frequent heat waves due to climate change were to blame for the threat. Local temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation and carbon dioxide levels are also important components of wine production and are all altered by climate change.
Overall, the study said, “We estimate that there is a significant risk (moderate to high) that 49 to 70 percent of existing wine regions will become unsuitable, depending on the degree of global warming.”
For example, Southern California has a moderate risk of being unsuitable for wine production at 2 degrees Celsius of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. However, if the average temperature rises between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius, the region faces a 'risk of non-conformity'. This could be a big problem for the U.S. West Coast, which produces most of North America's wine and 10% of the world's supply.
“Overall, pure ara suitable for wine production in California could decline by up to 50 percent by the end of the 21st century,” the researchers said. “Similar risks exist in Mexico, the southwestern United States, and the eastern seaboard of southern New Jersey.”
These changes can also be seen across southern Europe.
But all hope is not lost for the wine itself. Rising temperatures could make other regions more suitable for growing grapes, including Washington state, Oregon, Tasmania and northern France. But this suitability will vary “strongly” depending on how much temperatures rise, researchers say, which could pose a risk to environmental conservation. And even if it could bring new forms of economic growth to the region, people would still face extreme weather and the devastating effects that come with it.
A changing climate also brings the risk of experiencing new pathogens and insects that could impact agriculture and the overall environment and human health. Dry conditions make some vine problems, such as downy mildew, less likely to occur, but if they do occur, they are more likely to occur earlier and spread more quickly, the study found.
As with all elements of climate change, adaptation is “imperative,” the researchers said. Wine producers must consider which grape varieties are better suited to changing regions and harvest times. This is not only essential for global supply, but also overall wine quality.
For example, climatic factors appear to affect pH, alcohol content and acidity levels, the researchers found. While the alcohol and pH levels of the wine increase, the acidity level decreases, further destabilizing the microorganisms within the beverage. The researchers said this could lead to “increased risk of microbiological damage” and “overripe and/or cooked fruit aromas.”
Scientists have warned that current global efforts to slow global warming are not enough. Last year warmest on recordAlready in early 2024 record heat In addition to abnormally large weather events, snowstorm In unseasonable warmth.
Global temperatures have already risen 1.35 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. And the world recently overtook it for the first time 12 consecutive months The global average was 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. This doesn't mean we're permanently above 2 degrees Celsius, the threshold that experts warn could have disastrous effects, but it does mean we're making good progress. there.
“One thing is certain: climate change will lead to major changes in global wine production in the near future. Having the flexibility to adapt to these changes will be essential,” the researchers say in concluding their analysis.